Global vegetation composition continues to shift after 2100 even under strong mitigation measures

Description

We use the Earth System Model (ESM) EC-Earth3-Veg to quantify the long-term impacts of climate-induced changes on key terrestrial ecosystem processes for different Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios until 2300. EC-Earth3 Veg is unique. It is the first ESM with an advanced, individual-based, mechanistic terrestrial ecosystem model (LPJ-GUESS) simulating how ecosystems respond to
climate, land use and land cover change and how these responses influence the land-atmosphere exchange of CO2, that has participated in a Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP). In high emission scenarios, EC-Earth3-Veg shows temperatures continuously increasing and we see strong northward treeline migration as well as changes in vegetation composition and shrubification of dryer areas. When modelling strong mitigation measures, EC-Earth3-Veg simulates a peak in global average temperatures in the mid to late 21st century, followed by a period of decline before stabilising. In these simulations lag effects on vegetation composition between 2100 and 2300 occur, despite stabilised
temperatures. Our findings stress the need to further study ESM simulations of climate and terrestrial ecosystem changes beyond 2100, to better foresee the effects of mitigation measures and to support
robust policy development on climate, land use and land cover change.

Period	2022 May 17
Event title	Swedish Climate Symposium 2022
Event type	Conference
Location	Norrköping, SwedenShow on map