POSTER: How to study interactive effects of climate and climate change for pollinations in the future?

Description

Land use and climate change are two of the main threats for pollinators. Future climate scenarios project continued temperature increases, which have potential effects on plant-pollinator interactions via phenological shifts, and/or increased frequency of extreme events such as droughts.
Spatially explicit models of population dynamics that capture how bee populations jointly respond to weather and landscape-scale land use are needed. We present a spatially and temporally explicit theoretical model of wild bee populations. The model describes foraging at the colony level and temporal population dynamics for an average colony at the landscape level for bumblebees. The stages in population dynamics are temperature-dependent triggered with generalized seasonal progression, for example using growing degree days (GDD).
In this climate symposium we show how we can use our model to study 1) the interactive effects between different landscape types and drought and pollinators, and 2) exemplify how we used remote sensing data from southern Sweden and temperature data from the RCP 2.6 and 8.5 climate scenarios for the future (2021-2050, 2071-2100) to calibrate the flowering season in the model and reflect on the results for bumblebees at the landscape level.

Period	2022 May 16
Event title	Swedish Climate Symposium 2022
Event type	Conference
Location	Norrköping, SwedenShow on map