Climate proofing conservation of rare pollinators: integrated assessment using participatory socio-ecological system analysis

Conservation of species in fragmented habitats requires securing adequate local habitat size and quality, and favorable conditions at the landscape scale. These factors also help buffering negative effects of climate change (rising temperatures and extreme weather conditions) on local species populations. A major obstacle in transforming this knowledge into successful conservation is the insufficient consideration of the dynamic system of multiple interacting public and private actors which directly and indirectly change the conditions for target species persistence or extinction. Target species and actors’ land-use decisions both respond to climate change and other external drivers and pressures, which risks leading to misidentification of critical actors and leverage points, and thus ineffective conservation outcomes.
Here, we propose to apply a participatory socio-ecological systems (SES) modelling approach to assess the complex linkages between climate, land-use and conservation outcomes, replicated across landscapes. We make use of past and ongoing conservation action for rare wild bees in southern Sweden as a timely case-study, and identify critical actors and leverage points for improved conservation. Through an archetype approach, we will synthesize intermediate generalities from these landscape-scale SES, with the ambition to gain transferable insights that can inform similar endeavors internationally and help reversing biodiversity declines.