Effects of eco-evolutionary dynamics on ecosystem services in heterogeneous agricultural landscapes – novel avenues for predicting biological pest control

We will study the mechanistic link between agricultural intensification and loss of farmland heterogeneity, and the spatiotemporal dynamics of crop pest and natural enemies. This is a pressing endeavor as agriculture strives for increased production while minimizing the negative effects of intensification. Increased landscape heterogeneity is suggested to facilitate sustainable production by promoting biological control, but the practical implementation of such ecological intensification remains elusive. Methods in agro-ecology often relate spatial variation in predator densities with spatial variation in land-use without integrating trait-based species- specificity or eco-evolutionary feedbacks. A causal and mechanistic link between landscape structure, predator-pest dynamics, and pest control is thus largely lacking and predictions under novel conditions are difficult. More recent trait-based approaches do imply mechanistic underpinnings of population responses to landscape change, but the full link to population dynamics across spatiotemporal scales including trait evolution is lacking. We will develop a modeling framework that provides a quantitative link between functional trait-based ecological interactions and eco-evolutionary agro-ecosystem dynamics. We will thus answer calls for trait- based approaches that include eco-evolutionary feedbacks while explaining and predicting biological control in heterogeneous agricultural landscapes.