Optimal High Resolution Earth System Models for Exploring Future Climate Changes

OptimESM will provide new and policy-relevant knowledge on the consequences of reaching or exceeding different levels of global warming, including the risk of rapid change in key Earth system phenomena and the regional impacts arising both from the level of global warming and the occurrence of abrupt changes.

The new climate models will combine high resolution with an unprecedented description of key physical and biochemical processes. OptimESM will develop new emission and land-use scenarios extending to the year 2300, including ones that realise the Paris Agreement, and others that temporarily or permanently overshoot the Paris targets. Using these scenarios, OptimESM will deliver long-term projections that will increase our understanding of the risk of triggering potential tipping points in the climate system regarding ice sheets, sea ice, ocean circulation, marine ecosystems, permafrost and terrestrial ecosystems.