A probabilistic approach for handling uncertainty in infrastructure LCA

Oskar Larsson; Daniel Honfi; Håkan Stripple

A probabilistic approach for handling uncertainty in infrastructure LCA

Oskar Larsson, Daniel Honfi, Håkan Stripple

Division of Structural Engineering

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceeding › Paper in conference proceeding › peer-review

Abstract

To demonstrate and support sustainability of large-scale infrastructure projects, life cycle assessment (LCA) has become a common tool used in the evaluation of environmental impact. However, LCA includes a number of phases, which are all associated with uncertainties. Decisions made without regard to these uncertainties may be suboptimal and/or misleading. The current paper discusses some important issues about how to deal with uncertainties in LCA. Two case studies are presented that shows the effect of including uncertainty in various parameters. The results show that a reduction in uncertainty due to manufacturing improvements can increase the reliability of the results significantly. It was also found that the uncertainty assumptions for parameters where data is not available have a large impact on the LCA-results.

Original language	English
Title of host publication	IABSE Congress Stockholm, 2016: Challenges in Design and Construction of an Innovative and Sustainable Built Environment2016
Publisher	International Association for Bridge and Structural Engineering
Pages	1677-1685
ISBN (Print)	978-385748144-4
Publication status	Published - 2016
Event	19th IABSE Congress Stockholm 2016 - Stockholm, Sweden Duration: 2016 Sept 21 → 2016 Sept 23

Conference

Conference	19th IABSE Congress Stockholm 2016
Country/Territory	Sweden
City	Stockholm
Period	2016/09/21 → 2016/09/23

Subject classification (UKÄ)

Civil Engineering

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

1 Report

Uncertainty and variation in LCA - Implementation of probabilistic methods to assess environmental impacts of infrastructures
Larsson Ivanov, O., Honfi, D. & Stripple, H., 2018 May 3, Lunds tekniska högskola, Avdelningen för konstruktionsteknik. 58 p. (TVBK; no. 3070)
Research output: Book/Report › Report › Research

Open Access
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Cite this

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title = "A probabilistic approach for handling uncertainty in infrastructure LCA",

abstract = "To demonstrate and support sustainability of large-scale infrastructure projects, life cycle assessment (LCA) has become a common tool used in the evaluation of environmental impact. However, LCA includes a number of phases, which are all associated with uncertainties. Decisions made without regard to these uncertainties may be suboptimal and/or misleading. The current paper discusses some important issues about how to deal with uncertainties in LCA. Two case studies are presented that shows the effect of including uncertainty in various parameters. The results show that a reduction in uncertainty due to manufacturing improvements can increase the reliability of the results significantly. It was also found that the uncertainty assumptions for parameters where data is not available have a large impact on the LCA-results.",

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pages = "1677--1685",

booktitle = "IABSE Congress Stockholm, 2016: Challenges in Design and Construction of an Innovative and Sustainable Built Environment2016",

publisher = "International Association for Bridge and Structural Engineering",

note = "19th IABSE Congress Stockholm 2016 ; Conference date: 21-09-2016 Through 23-09-2016",

}

Larsson, O, Honfi, D & Stripple, H 2016, A probabilistic approach for handling uncertainty in infrastructure LCA. in IABSE Congress Stockholm, 2016: Challenges in Design and Construction of an Innovative and Sustainable Built Environment2016. International Association for Bridge and Structural Engineering, pp. 1677-1685, 19th IABSE Congress Stockholm 2016, Stockholm, Sweden, 2016/09/21.

A probabilistic approach for handling uncertainty in infrastructure LCA. / Larsson, Oskar; Honfi, Daniel; Stripple, Håkan.
IABSE Congress Stockholm, 2016: Challenges in Design and Construction of an Innovative and Sustainable Built Environment2016. International Association for Bridge and Structural Engineering, 2016. p. 1677-1685.

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceeding › Paper in conference proceeding › peer-review

TY - GEN

T1 - A probabilistic approach for handling uncertainty in infrastructure LCA

AU - Larsson, Oskar

AU - Honfi, Daniel

AU - Stripple, Håkan

PY - 2016

Y1 - 2016

N2 - To demonstrate and support sustainability of large-scale infrastructure projects, life cycle assessment (LCA) has become a common tool used in the evaluation of environmental impact. However, LCA includes a number of phases, which are all associated with uncertainties. Decisions made without regard to these uncertainties may be suboptimal and/or misleading. The current paper discusses some important issues about how to deal with uncertainties in LCA. Two case studies are presented that shows the effect of including uncertainty in various parameters. The results show that a reduction in uncertainty due to manufacturing improvements can increase the reliability of the results significantly. It was also found that the uncertainty assumptions for parameters where data is not available have a large impact on the LCA-results.

AB - To demonstrate and support sustainability of large-scale infrastructure projects, life cycle assessment (LCA) has become a common tool used in the evaluation of environmental impact. However, LCA includes a number of phases, which are all associated with uncertainties. Decisions made without regard to these uncertainties may be suboptimal and/or misleading. The current paper discusses some important issues about how to deal with uncertainties in LCA. Two case studies are presented that shows the effect of including uncertainty in various parameters. The results show that a reduction in uncertainty due to manufacturing improvements can increase the reliability of the results significantly. It was also found that the uncertainty assumptions for parameters where data is not available have a large impact on the LCA-results.

M3 - Paper in conference proceeding

SN - 978-385748144-4

SP - 1677

EP - 1685

BT - IABSE Congress Stockholm, 2016: Challenges in Design and Construction of an Innovative and Sustainable Built Environment2016

PB - International Association for Bridge and Structural Engineering

T2 - 19th IABSE Congress Stockholm 2016

Y2 - 21 September 2016 through 23 September 2016

ER -

A probabilistic approach for handling uncertainty in infrastructure LCA

Abstract

Conference

Subject classification (UKÄ)

UN SDGs

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Research output

Uncertainty and variation in LCA - Implementation of probabilistic methods to assess environmental impacts of infrastructures

Cite this