Anti-müllerian hormone levels are associated with live birth rates in ART, but the predictive ability of anti-müllerian hormone is modest

Objectives: The aim was to evaluate the association between serum Anti-Müllerian Hormone (AMH) level and cumulative live birth rates (LBR) in patients undergoing their first in vitro fertilization (IVF) treatment cycle, and to compare serum AMH levels with Antral Follicle Count (AFC) and Ovarian Sensitivity Index (OSI) as predictors of live birth. Study design: A prospective cohort study of 454 patients under the age of 40 and with a regular menstrual cycle of 21-35 days, undergoing their first IVF treatment cycles between September 2010 and June 2015. Participants were divided into three groups based on their AMH level, (AMH ≤10, AMH 10-<30 and AMH ≥30 pmol/l). Any difference in AMH-distribution between patients with or without live birth was analyzed using a Mann-Whitney-test, and live birth rates were compared between groups by a chi-squared test for linear trend. The ability of AMH, OSI and AFC as predictors of live birth was assessed by a receiver operating characteristics-analysis and the area under the curve (AUC) was calculated. Results: Patients with live birth had a higher AMH, median (range) 26 [0-137] pmol/l, compared with patients without live birth, AMH 22 [0-154] pmol/l, p = 0.035. Mean live birth rate (SD) was 0.36 (0.48) in the total cohort, 0.26 (0.44) in AMH-group <10, 0.34 (0.48) in AMH-group 10-<30, and 0.41(0.49) in AMH-group ≥30. Thus live birth rates increased with 8% per AMH-group (95% CI: 0.02 −0.14, p = 0.015). The AUC for AFC was 0.56, for AMH 0.57 and for OSI 0.63, respectively. Conclusion: AMH concentration in serum is associated with live birth rates after IVF. Our results suggest that both AMH, AFC and OSI have an equal but modest predictive ability in relation to live birth rate.