Assessing Low Carbon Transitions: A Conceptual Model

The present report presents a conceptual assessment model or framework for policy relevant analysis of low carbon transitions. The aim of the study is not to present specific guidelines for how to design assessments of low carbon transitions, but rather to give food for thought on aspects that should be regarded in the design process. The exact design would then depend on the purpose of the assessment, the scope and priorities set for the assessment, and the resources (personal and financial) available for the assessments.
We find that there are at least three elements of an assessment model that are important to provide policy relevant knowledge: i) monitoring, ii) policy evaluation, and iii) domain knowledge building processes, including research. Monitoring is here understood as a process that is intended to inform whether society is on track on meeting set-up political priorities. Policy evaluation concentrates on the effects of low carbon transition policies and effects of other policies. Domain knowledge building through research and other processes is important both for identifying relevant assessment criteria and designing monitoring systems, as well as for policy evaluations.
A domain knowledge base can include knowledge of i) drivers and barriers for low carbon transitions, ii) the sustainability of various technologies, policies and practices, iii) previous policy experiences, and iv) contextual knowledge of the market, actors, mitigation technologies and pathways, etc. in various sectors. This information and background knowledge will help inform how policies can be redesigned for overcoming the barriers and enable change in various contexts while safeguarding that the changes are not in conflict with other key societal goals and sustainability aspects.
Monitoring can cover direct outcomes such as greenhouse gas emissions or diffusion of low carbon technologies. But with a long-term transitions perspective it is also important to look into the preparedness for change with regard to existence of factors such as visions and expectations, knowledge, feasible policies and policy instruments (taking into account stringency as well as coverage and policy coherence), societal norms, innovation networks, or the readiness of key technologies.
Evaluation of policies can in turn cover several aspects beyond policy relevance and effectiveness including synergies and conflicts with other objectives. It could also evaluate the consistency of targets with overarching objectives as well as specific strategies, policy instruments or policy packages.
In the conceptual assessment model, policy adjustments are expected to be informed by the monitoring process regarding what is needed and by policy evaluation with regard to what works. Together these processes can inform on how both the stringency and the design of policies could be developed over time.