Changes in prevalence and incidence of HIV-1, HIV-2 and dual infections in urban areas of Bissau, Guinea-Bissau: is HIV-2 disappearing?

Objectives: To assess the changes in HIV prevalence and incidence between 1996 and 2006 in urban areas of Bissau. Design: A cross-sectional survey of 384 randomly selected houses within a community-based follow-up study of HIV-1 and HIV-2. Methods: A total of 3242 individuals aged at least 15 years were eligible for inclusion. Participants were interviewed about behavioral and socio-economic factors and had a blood sample drawn. A total of 2548 individuals were tested for antibodies to HIV-1 and HIV-2, of whom 649 had taken part in a similar survey in 1996. Results: With 0.5% HIV dual reactions included, the overall HIV-1 prevalence was 4.6% (118 out of 2548) and the HIV-2 prevalence was 4.4% (112 out of 2548). The prevalence of HIV-1 increased more for women than men especially in the 25-34-year age group. HIV-2 prevalence decreased below 45 years of age but not for individuals more than 45 years old. The incidence rate between 1996 and 2006 was 0.5 per 100 person-years for HIV-1 and 0.24 per 100 person-years for HIV-2. Compared with a previous period from 1987 to 1996, the incidence of HIV-2 is declining whereas no significant increase in the incidence of HIV-1 was observed. Conclusions: The present study shows an increasing prevalence of HIV-1 and a decreasing prevalence of HIV-2 in Guinea-Bissau. HIV is generally a bigger problem for women. Despite the general decline in prevalence, HIV-2 may continue as an infection in older people, especially women.