Decision making with unreliable probabilities

Peter Gärdenfors; Nils-Eric Sahlin

doi:10.1111/j.2044-8317.1983.tb01130.x

Decision making with unreliable probabilities

Peter Gärdenfors, Nils-Eric Sahlin

Theoretical Philosophy

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

Abstract

This paper presents a decision theory which allows subjects to account for the uncertainties of their probability estimates. This is accomplished by modelling beliefs about states of nature by means of a class of probability measures. In order to represent uncertainties of those beliefs a measure of epistemic reliability is introduced. The suggested decision theory is evaluated in the light of empirical evidence on ambiguity and uncertainty in decision making. The theory is also compared to Tversky & Kahneman's prospect theory.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	240-251
Journal	British Journal of Mathematical & Statistical Psychology
Volume	36
Issue number	2
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1111/j.2044-8317.1983.tb01130.x
Publication status	Published - 1983

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Philosophy

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10.1111/j.2044-8317.1983.tb01130.x

1 Book chapter

Decision making with unreliable probabilities
Gärdenfors, P. & Sahlin, N.-E., 1987, System Design and Human Interaction. Sage, A. P. (ed.). IEEE - Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Inc., p. 102-121
Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceeding › Book chapter › Research › peer-review

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Decision making with unreliable probabilities

Abstract

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Decision making with unreliable probabilities

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