Estimating the total rate of DNA replication using branching processes

Increasing the knowledge of various cell cycle kinetic parameters, such as the length of the cell cycle and its different phases, is of considerable importance for several purposes including tumor diagnostics and treatment in clinical health care and a deepened understanding of tumor growth mechanisms. Of particular interest as a prognostic factor in different cancer forms is the S phase, during which DNA is replicated. In the present paper, we estimate the DNA replication rate and the S phase length from bromodeoxyuridine-DNA flow cytometry data. The mathematical analysis is based on a branching process model, paired with an assumed gamma distribution for the S phase duration, with which the DNA distribution of S phase cells can be expressed in terms of the DNA replication rate. Flow cytometry data typically contains rather large measurement variations, however, and we employ nonparametric deconvolution to estimate the underlying DNA distribution of S phase cells; an estimate of the DNA replication rate is then provided by this distribution and the mathematical model.