Evaluating an indicator matrix for early detection of smuggling equipment for dual-use

This paper presents a systematic approach that was developed to deal with and eliminate attempts to smuggle equipment for dual-use. The method consists of an Indicator Graph and an Indicator Matrix. Its usefulness in the early warning of dual-use trade was evaluated retroactively by applying it to a real case that occurred in Sweden. The case from 1999 involved a university student who attempted to smuggle a US-made thyratron into Iran. The conclusion of the case study evaluation was that if systematic security measures had been undertaken from the very start, it most likely would have prevented the trade from taking place. A good security system needs to maintain preparedness based on the understanding that errors and inconsistencies occur along the way that are worth reacting to. This can be done with the help of such a tool.