Expanding European fossil-based plastic production in a time of socio-ecological crisis: A neo-Gramscian perspective

The global plastics industry is undergoing significant expansion, driven by record-scale infrastructure investments that are increasing fossil fuel demand. However, this growth has largely bypassed Europe, where mature markets, limited feedstock availability, and stringent environmental regulations prevail. Despite these constraints, in 2019 the petrochemical conglomerate INEOS announced plans for a new ethane cracker in Antwerp, the single largest project in the European chemical industry for decades. This unexpected development raises questions about how fossil-based plastic production can expand in a region purportedly transitioning away from fossil fuels. Here, we employ a neo-Gramscian perspective on transitions to analyse the INEOS investment as a case study using both documents and interview data. We trace the processes that facilitated this project, examining developments in the broader fossil fuel economy and INEOS's strategies for accommodating local and global transition pressures. Our analysis demonstrates that the investment represents a case of trasformismo, where limited socio-technical reconfiguration enables the expansion of fossil-based plastic production despite ongoing socio-ecological crises linked to plastics. We conclude that the expansion of plastics production in Europe exemplifies broader efforts to maintain fossil fuel hegemony beyond energy production. This finding highlights the need for strategic approaches that address fossil fuels as feedstock to effectively transition towards post-fossil forms of production.