Forecasting and evaluation of traffic safety impacts: driving assistance systems against road infrastructure measures

Meng Lu, K. Wevers

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingPaper in conference proceedingpeer-review

Abstract

The authors examine the use of a one-variable first-order grey model ( GM( 1,1)), to model and forecast the trend of the level of cumulative traffic accident severity for strategic scenarios for implementation of driving assistance systems, physical infrastructure redesign and combinations of the two categories of measures. The accident severity levels ( in terms of fatalities and hospitalisations) of five scenarios for the period 2003-2007 are analysed and modelled. In addition, the trend of fatalities and hospitalisations for each scenario for the years 2008 until 2010 is forecasted. For further policy evaluation, the costs of each scenario ( for the years 2003 2010) are estimated. By using cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) the five scenarios for improving road traffic safety are compared.
Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationIET Intelligent Transport Systems
PublisherInstitution of Engineering and Technology
Pages117-123
Volume1
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2007
Event13th Intelligent Transport Systems World Congress - London, England
Duration: 0001 Jan 2 → …

Publication series

Name
Number2
Volume1
ISSN (Print)1751-956X
ISSN (Electronic)1751-9578

Conference

Conference13th Intelligent Transport Systems World Congress
Period0001/01/02 → …

Subject classification (UKÄ)

  • Infrastructure Engineering

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