Forecasting and evaluation of traffic safety impacts: driving assistance systems against road infrastructure measures

The authors examine the use of a one-variable first-order grey model ( GM( 1,1)), to model and forecast the trend of the level of cumulative traffic accident severity for strategic scenarios for implementation of driving assistance systems, physical infrastructure redesign and combinations of the two categories of measures. The accident severity levels ( in terms of fatalities and hospitalisations) of five scenarios for the period 2003-2007 are analysed and modelled. In addition, the trend of fatalities and hospitalisations for each scenario for the years 2008 until 2010 is forecasted. For further policy evaluation, the costs of each scenario ( for the years 2003 2010) are estimated. By using cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) the five scenarios for improving road traffic safety are compared.