Future Demand and Supply of Food in China - A modeling attempt

Christer Kalen, Hördur Haraldsson, Deniz Koca

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingPaper in conference proceedingResearchpeer-review

Abstract

This paper focuses on future scenarios of demand and supply of grain in China. Economic development has been growing at a steady pace for decades and there are no signs of a decline in the near future. Projections of population trends show that the population will continue to expand until 2050, when a levelling- off is predicted. The growth of both population and economy drives industrialisation and urbanisation where area for settlement and infrastructure is demanded. Agricultural land is converted into urban area with high water consumption and pollution problems. People with a higher income diversify the diet, a diet that needs a larger area for production. The fundamental basis for self-subsistence in food production - agricultural land and clean water - is diminishing rapidly and may soon necessitate an extensive grain import. This study concludes that even if conservation measures are carried out China may face an extensive need for import of grain products.
Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationProceeding of the 20th International Conference of the System Dynamics Society
PublisherSystem Dynamics Society
Pages85-85
Publication statusPublished - 2002
EventThe 20th International Conference of the System Dynamics Society - Palermo, Italy
Duration: 2002 Jul 282002 Aug 1

Conference

ConferenceThe 20th International Conference of the System Dynamics Society
Country/TerritoryItaly
CityPalermo
Period2002/07/282002/08/01

Subject classification (UKÄ)

  • Earth and Related Environmental Sciences

Fingerprint

Dive into the research topics of 'Future Demand and Supply of Food in China - A modeling attempt'. Together they form a unique fingerprint.

Cite this