Hard fact or illusion? An investigation on momentum in female elite handball from a team perspective

Athletes constantly report experiences of momentum during athletic contests, and they consider momentum as being an important factor for the outcome of a competition. However, researchers trying to capture momentum with quantitative methods see themselves confronted with inconclusive results. To explain this gap between athletes’ belief and results from quantitative data, it is hypothesised that momentum might not necessarily happen in
every match, and/or that momentum only emerges in short periods of a match. Taking into account limitations of research done so far, the present study investigates the prevalence of momentum, defined from a behavioural perspective and measured through serial dependence and non-stationarity, in female elite handball. In order to take into account players’ judgements of different match events, a pre-study was done with 49 female elite players. These data were used to estimate autocorrelations and χ2 tests from 43 matches in 2 play-off round of the Swedish Championships. In line with existing studies, the results confirmed that momentum was difficult to capture in the behavioural analysis: The results revealed that only 11.6% (autocorrelations), respectively, 16.3% (χ2 tests) of the matches
showed signs for momentum, and some matches even showed signs for anti-momentum. However, it emerged that five-minute periods of momentum happen in nearly 75% of all matches. This result led to the hypothesis that athletes base their belief in momentum on such short-term periods, but that momentum normally not lasts for a complete match. The results are discussed in light of the existing literature, and propositions for future research are provided.