Highly resolved projections of climate and vegetation indicate major changes in northern Scandinavia: Implications for reindeer herding, tourism and nature conservation

Through Arctic amplification, global climate change is projected to disproportionally affect high-latitude environments. Additionally, the geographical heterogeneity and complex terrain of mountains promote climate-driven ecological change on fine spatial scales. We used a high-resolution convection-permitting regional climate model (HCLIM) and a state-of-the-art dynamic vegetation model (LPJ-GUESS) to explore mid-twentieth century implications of continued global warming for reindeer herding, tourism and nature conservation in the mountainous, northern parts of Scandinavia. Several indicators relevant for stakeholders were investigated: length of snow season, crossings of zero temperature, rain-on-snow events, as well as tree and forest line shifts. Comparing results from the high-resolution (3 km) climate model with results from a coarser-scale (12 km) model commonly used for climate change assessments revealed that ecologically and societally significant patterns become apparent only at higher resolution. Large changes are projected among all investigated indicators for the present century, and we explore their societal implications.