Impacts of the North Atlantic Oscillation on Scandinavian hydropower production and energy markets

J Cherry, H Cullen, M Visbeck, A Small, Cintia Bertacchi Uvo

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46 Citations (SciVal)

Abstract

Dramatic swings in the North Atlantic oscillation (NAO) during the 1990s motivated the authors to build a statistical model of NAO impacts on hydropower production and energy markets in Scandinavia. Variation in the NAO index is shown to explain 55% of the variance of streamflow in Norway and up to 30% of the variance in Norway's hydropower output. It is also possible to identify the influence of NAO anomalies on electricity consumption and prices. Government liberalization allowed a financial market to grow around the international trading of electricity, which in Norway is produced almost entirely from hydropower. The model offers a possible tool for predicting the effects of future NAO movements on hydropower production and energy prices in Scandinavia. The potential influence of skillful climate prediction is discussed.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)673-691
JournalWater Resources Management
Volume19
Issue number6
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2005

Subject classification (UKÄ)

  • Water Engineering

Keywords

  • hydropower
  • energy
  • North Atlantic oscillation
  • social impacts
  • impacts
  • climate

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