Innovation in the long run: Perspectives on technological transitions in Sweden 1908-2016

There are fundamental unresolved questions about the nature of the long-run interplay between innovation and economic development processes. This study examines technological transitions in Sweden, 1908-2016, using a new literature-based innovation output indicator for the engineering industry, allowing a mixed-methods approach. The results suggest that waves of innovation have taken place during periods of investment downturns and structural crises during the 1930s, 1970s, and 2010s. Closer examination indicates that landscape pressure alone cannot explain the pattern. Rather, the pattern can be explained by multi-regime interactions: infrastructure and industry rationalization, acting as a fertile ground for breakthrough innovations when the crisis breaks out. The results support a historical interpretation of long-run transitions in terms of development blocks and three industrial revolutions, with implications for the assessment of current sustainable transitions. This suggests a crucial role for infrastructures and interactions between socio-technical systems, not least between digital and renewable energy technology.