Intergenerational Transmission of Divorce in Sweden, 1905-2015

Many studies demonstrate an intergenerational transmission of divorce (ITD). Most research is, however, limited to modern periods (i.e., more recent decades) and little is known about whether this relationship is deeply rooted or whether it has changed over time. Explanations, including sociodemographic and interpersonal factors, have been offered as links between parental divorce and offspring’s marriage stability. We use individual-level longitudinal data to estimate the ITD among first marriages in Sweden in 1905–2015. We investigate the association between parental divorce and own divorce during the transition from a low to a high divorce regime. Controlling for demographic and socioeconomic characteristics, we find stability in ITD over time, and see that divorce risks are highest when either the wife or both spouses have experienced parental divorce. The transmission has been stronger and more stable for women than for men over time. Results from a period spanning more than a century indicate that ITD is part of the transition from low to high divorce rates and highlight the role of female independence in this process.