Long-term prediction of prostate cancer up to 25 years before diagnosis of prostate cancer using prostate kallikreins measured at age 44 to 50 years.

Hans Lilja, David Ulmert, Thomas Björk, Charlotte Becker, Angel M Serio, Jan-Ake Nilsson, Per-Anders Abrahamsson, Andrew J Vickers, Göran Berglund

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review


Purpose We examined whether prostate-specific antigen (PSA) forms and human kallikrein 2 (hK2) measured at age 44 to 50 years predict long-term risk of incident prostate cancer. Methods From 1974 to 1986, 21,277 men age <= 50 years in Malmo, Sweden, enrolled onto a cardiovascular study (74% participation). The rate of PSA screening in this population is low. According to the Swedish Cancer Registry, 498 were later diagnosed with prostate cancer. We measured hK2, free PSA, and total PSA (tPSA) in archived blood plasma from 462 participants later diagnosed with prostate cancer and from 1,222 matched controls. Conditional logistic regression was used to test for association of prostate cancer with hK2 and PSA forms measured at baseline. Results Median delay between venipuncture and prostate cancer diagnosis was 18 years. hK2 and all PSA forms were strongly associated with prostate cancer (all P < .0005). None of the 90 anthropometric, lifestyle, biochemical, and medical history variables measured at baseline was importantly predictive. A tPSA increase of 1 ng/mL was associated with an increase in odds of cancer of 3.69 (95% CI, 2.99 to 4.56); addition of other PSA forms or hK2 did not add to the predictive value of tPSA. tPSA remained predictive for men diagnosed >= 20 years after venipuncture, and the predictive value remained unchanged in an analysis restricted to palpable disease. Conclusion A single PSA test at age 44 to 50 years predicts subsequent clinically diagnosed prostate cancer. This raises the possibility of risk stratification for prostate cancer screening programs.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)431-436
JournalJournal of Clinical Oncology
Issue number4
Publication statusPublished - 2007

Subject classification (UKÄ)

  • Cancer and Oncology


  • Predictive Value of Tests
  • Middle Aged
  • Mass Screening
  • Male
  • Humans
  • Case-Control Studies
  • Aged
  • Adult
  • Prostatic Neoplasms: pathology
  • Retrospective Studies
  • Time Factors
  • Risk Assessment
  • Tissue Kallikreins: blood
  • Prostatic Neoplasms: diagnosis
  • Prostate-Specific Antigen: blood


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