Predictors of successful transition of adolescents and young adults living with HIV from pediatric to adult-oriented care in southern Ethiopia: a retrospective cohort study

Background: The introduction of highly active antiretroviral therapy has significantly improved the life expectancies of children and adolescents living with HIV, leading to an increased number transitioning to adult care. However, there has been a lack of studies in Ethiopia focusing on factors influencing the success of this transition. Therefore, this study aimed to determine predictors of a successful transition from pediatric to adult HIV clinics among adolescents and young adults living with HIV in health facilities in southern Ethiopia. Methods: A retrospective cohort study included 337 adolescents and young adults who transitioned to adult-oriented HIV care. Successful transition was defined as having a viral load of less than 1000 copies/ml and maintaining care during the first year post-transition. Patients’ antiretroviral therapy (ART) cards and monitoring charts were reviewed. Secondary data analysis was conducted using a multivariable binary logistic regression model to identify predictors of a successful transition. Using the variance inflation factor, we checked for multi-collinearity between variables and assessed model fitness with the Hosmer and Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test. Adjusted Odds Ratio (AOR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI) and P-value ≤ 0.05 measured the strength of association and statistical significance. Results: Of 337 participants, 230 (68.25%) successfully transitioned (95% CI = 63.25, 73.25). Transitioning at age 18 or older (AOR = 4.25; 95% CI = 2.29, 7.87), residing in an urban area (AOR = 1.78; 95% CI = 1.04, 3.02), and being on antiretroviral therapy for more than two years (AOR = 4.25; 95% CI = 1.17, 4.94; P < 0.017) were identified as positive predictors and opportunistic infection (AOR = 0.34; 95% CI = 0.15, 0.75; P < 0.008) was identified as a negative predictor for a successful transition from pediatric to adult ART clinic. Conclusion: This study sheds light on the challenges faced by HIV patients transitioning from pediatric to adult care, with less than 70% successfully navigating this critical phase. Factors such as age at transition, residence, duration of ART, and the presence of opportunistic infections were identified as key predictors of successful transition. The findings underscore the urgent need for tailored interventions, including standardized transition plans that address age and urban/rural disparities, to enhance transition outcomes for adolescents and young adults living with HIV in the region.