Prognostic nomogram to predict progression-free survival in patients with platinum-sensitive recurrent ovarian cancer

C K Lee; R J Simes; C Brown; S Lord; U Wagner; M Plante; I Vergote; C Pisano; G Parma; A Burges; H Bourgeois; T Högberg; J Bentley; L Angleitner-Boubenizek; A Ferrero; B Richter; H Hirte; V Gebski; J Pfisterer; E Pujade-Lauraine; M Friedlander

doi:10.1038/bjc.2011.364

Prognostic nomogram to predict progression-free survival in patients with platinum-sensitive recurrent ovarian cancer

C K Lee, R J Simes, C Brown, S Lord, U Wagner, M Plante, I Vergote, C Pisano, G Parma, A Burges, H Bourgeois, T Högberg, J Bentley, L Angleitner-Boubenizek, A Ferrero, B Richter, H Hirte, V Gebski, J Pfisterer, E Pujade-LauraineM Friedlander

Linköping University Hospital

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

Abstract

BACKGROUND: Patients with platinum-sensitive recurrent ovarian cancer are a heterogeneous group, and it is not possible to accurately predict the progression-free survival (PFS) in these patients. We developed and validated a nomogram to help improve prediction of PFS in patients treated with platinum-based chemotherapy.

METHODS: The nomogram was developed in a training cohort (n=955) from the CALYPSO trial and validated in the AGO-OVAR 2.5 Study (n=340). The proportional-hazards model (nomogram) was based on pre-treatment characteristics.

RESULTS: The nomogram had a concordance index (C-index) of 0.645. Significant predictors were tumour size platinum-chemotherapy-free interval, CA-125, number of organ metastatic sites and white blood count. When the nomogram was applied without CA-125 (CA-125 was not available in validation cohort), the C-indices were 0.624 (training) and 0.594 (validation). When classification was based only on the platinum-chemotherapy-free interval, the indices were 0.571 (training) and 0.560 (validation). The calibration plot in the validation cohort based on four predictors (without CA-125) suggested good agreement between actual and nomogram-predicted 12-month PFS probabilities.

CONCLUSION: This nomogram, using five pre-treatment characteristics, improves prediction of PFS in patients with platinum-sensitive ovarian cancer having platinum-based chemotherapy. It will be useful for the design and stratification of patients in clinical trials and also for counselling patients.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	1144-50
Journal	British Journal of Cancer
Volume	105
Issue number	8
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1038/bjc.2011.364
Publication status	Published - 2011 Oct 11
Externally published	Yes

Subject classification (UKÄ)

Cancer and Oncology

Free keywords

Adult
Aged
Aged, 80 and over
Antineoplastic Agents/therapeutic use
Carboplatin/therapeutic use
Cohort Studies
Disease-Free Survival
Female
Humans
Middle Aged
Ovarian Neoplasms/drug therapy
Prognosis
Proportional Hazards Models

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

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10.1038/bjc.2011.364

Cite this

Lee, C. K., Simes, R. J., Brown, C., Lord, S., Wagner, U., Plante, M., Vergote, I., Pisano, C., Parma, G., Burges, A., Bourgeois, H., Högberg, T., Bentley, J., Angleitner-Boubenizek, L., Ferrero, A., Richter, B., Hirte, H., Gebski, V., Pfisterer, J., ... Friedlander, M. (2011). Prognostic nomogram to predict progression-free survival in patients with platinum-sensitive recurrent ovarian cancer. British Journal of Cancer, 105(8), 1144-50. https://doi.org/10.1038/bjc.2011.364

@article{e7b0b8e73b734c01800415b462fc9ee7,

title = "Prognostic nomogram to predict progression-free survival in patients with platinum-sensitive recurrent ovarian cancer",

abstract = "BACKGROUND: Patients with platinum-sensitive recurrent ovarian cancer are a heterogeneous group, and it is not possible to accurately predict the progression-free survival (PFS) in these patients. We developed and validated a nomogram to help improve prediction of PFS in patients treated with platinum-based chemotherapy.METHODS: The nomogram was developed in a training cohort (n=955) from the CALYPSO trial and validated in the AGO-OVAR 2.5 Study (n=340). The proportional-hazards model (nomogram) was based on pre-treatment characteristics.RESULTS: The nomogram had a concordance index (C-index) of 0.645. Significant predictors were tumour size platinum-chemotherapy-free interval, CA-125, number of organ metastatic sites and white blood count. When the nomogram was applied without CA-125 (CA-125 was not available in validation cohort), the C-indices were 0.624 (training) and 0.594 (validation). When classification was based only on the platinum-chemotherapy-free interval, the indices were 0.571 (training) and 0.560 (validation). The calibration plot in the validation cohort based on four predictors (without CA-125) suggested good agreement between actual and nomogram-predicted 12-month PFS probabilities.CONCLUSION: This nomogram, using five pre-treatment characteristics, improves prediction of PFS in patients with platinum-sensitive ovarian cancer having platinum-based chemotherapy. It will be useful for the design and stratification of patients in clinical trials and also for counselling patients.",

keywords = "Adult, Aged, Aged, 80 and over, Antineoplastic Agents/therapeutic use, Carboplatin/therapeutic use, Cohort Studies, Disease-Free Survival, Female, Humans, Middle Aged, Ovarian Neoplasms/drug therapy, Prognosis, Proportional Hazards Models",

author = "Lee, {C K} and Simes, {R J} and C Brown and S Lord and U Wagner and M Plante and I Vergote and C Pisano and G Parma and A Burges and H Bourgeois and T H{\"o}gberg and J Bentley and L Angleitner-Boubenizek and A Ferrero and B Richter and H Hirte and V Gebski and J Pfisterer and E Pujade-Lauraine and M Friedlander",

year = "2011",

month = oct,

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doi = "10.1038/bjc.2011.364",

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Lee, CK, Simes, RJ, Brown, C, Lord, S, Wagner, U, Plante, M, Vergote, I, Pisano, C, Parma, G, Burges, A, Bourgeois, H, Högberg, T, Bentley, J, Angleitner-Boubenizek, L, Ferrero, A, Richter, B, Hirte, H, Gebski, V, Pfisterer, J, Pujade-Lauraine, E & Friedlander, M 2011, 'Prognostic nomogram to predict progression-free survival in patients with platinum-sensitive recurrent ovarian cancer', British Journal of Cancer, vol. 105, no. 8, pp. 1144-50. https://doi.org/10.1038/bjc.2011.364

TY - JOUR

T1 - Prognostic nomogram to predict progression-free survival in patients with platinum-sensitive recurrent ovarian cancer

AU - Lee, C K

AU - Simes, R J

AU - Brown, C

AU - Lord, S

AU - Wagner, U

AU - Plante, M

AU - Vergote, I

AU - Pisano, C

AU - Parma, G

AU - Burges, A

AU - Bourgeois, H

AU - Högberg, T

AU - Bentley, J

AU - Angleitner-Boubenizek, L

AU - Ferrero, A

AU - Richter, B

AU - Hirte, H

AU - Gebski, V

AU - Pfisterer, J

AU - Pujade-Lauraine, E

AU - Friedlander, M

PY - 2011/10/11

Y1 - 2011/10/11

N2 - BACKGROUND: Patients with platinum-sensitive recurrent ovarian cancer are a heterogeneous group, and it is not possible to accurately predict the progression-free survival (PFS) in these patients. We developed and validated a nomogram to help improve prediction of PFS in patients treated with platinum-based chemotherapy.METHODS: The nomogram was developed in a training cohort (n=955) from the CALYPSO trial and validated in the AGO-OVAR 2.5 Study (n=340). The proportional-hazards model (nomogram) was based on pre-treatment characteristics.RESULTS: The nomogram had a concordance index (C-index) of 0.645. Significant predictors were tumour size platinum-chemotherapy-free interval, CA-125, number of organ metastatic sites and white blood count. When the nomogram was applied without CA-125 (CA-125 was not available in validation cohort), the C-indices were 0.624 (training) and 0.594 (validation). When classification was based only on the platinum-chemotherapy-free interval, the indices were 0.571 (training) and 0.560 (validation). The calibration plot in the validation cohort based on four predictors (without CA-125) suggested good agreement between actual and nomogram-predicted 12-month PFS probabilities.CONCLUSION: This nomogram, using five pre-treatment characteristics, improves prediction of PFS in patients with platinum-sensitive ovarian cancer having platinum-based chemotherapy. It will be useful for the design and stratification of patients in clinical trials and also for counselling patients.

AB - BACKGROUND: Patients with platinum-sensitive recurrent ovarian cancer are a heterogeneous group, and it is not possible to accurately predict the progression-free survival (PFS) in these patients. We developed and validated a nomogram to help improve prediction of PFS in patients treated with platinum-based chemotherapy.METHODS: The nomogram was developed in a training cohort (n=955) from the CALYPSO trial and validated in the AGO-OVAR 2.5 Study (n=340). The proportional-hazards model (nomogram) was based on pre-treatment characteristics.RESULTS: The nomogram had a concordance index (C-index) of 0.645. Significant predictors were tumour size platinum-chemotherapy-free interval, CA-125, number of organ metastatic sites and white blood count. When the nomogram was applied without CA-125 (CA-125 was not available in validation cohort), the C-indices were 0.624 (training) and 0.594 (validation). When classification was based only on the platinum-chemotherapy-free interval, the indices were 0.571 (training) and 0.560 (validation). The calibration plot in the validation cohort based on four predictors (without CA-125) suggested good agreement between actual and nomogram-predicted 12-month PFS probabilities.CONCLUSION: This nomogram, using five pre-treatment characteristics, improves prediction of PFS in patients with platinum-sensitive ovarian cancer having platinum-based chemotherapy. It will be useful for the design and stratification of patients in clinical trials and also for counselling patients.

KW - Adult

KW - Aged

KW - Aged, 80 and over

KW - Antineoplastic Agents/therapeutic use

KW - Carboplatin/therapeutic use

KW - Cohort Studies

KW - Disease-Free Survival

KW - Female

KW - Humans

KW - Middle Aged

KW - Ovarian Neoplasms/drug therapy

KW - Prognosis

KW - Proportional Hazards Models

U2 - 10.1038/bjc.2011.364

DO - 10.1038/bjc.2011.364

M3 - Article

C2 - 21915127

SN - 1532-1827

VL - 105

SP - 1144

EP - 1150

JO - British Journal of Cancer

JF - British Journal of Cancer

IS - 8

ER -

Prognostic nomogram to predict progression-free survival in patients with platinum-sensitive recurrent ovarian cancer

Abstract

Subject classification (UKÄ)

Free keywords

UN SDGs

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