Real-time Train Arrival Time Prediction at Multiple Stations and Arbitrary Times

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingPaper in conference proceedingpeer-review

Abstract

Real-time prediction of train arrivals is important for proactive traffic control and information provision in passenger rails. Despite many studies in predicting arrival times or delays at stations, they are essentially the next-step time series prediction problem which may limit their applications in practice. For example, passengers on the trains or waiting on platforms may have different destinations and need the predicted train arrival times for any downstream stations rather than only the next station. The paper aims to formulate a real-time train arrival times prediction problem at multiple stations and arbitrary times. We develop multi-output machine learning models and systematically evaluate their performance using train operation data in Sweden. The direct multi-output regression models with different regression functions are tested, including LightGBM, linear regression, random forest regression, and gradient boosting regression models. The hyperparameters are optimized using random grid search and five-fold cross-validation methods. The results show that the Direct Multi-Output LightGBM significantly outper-formed other models in terms of accuracy. The predictions at downstream stations improve as the train moves along given more real-time information is observed.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publication2022 IEEE 25th International Conference on Intelligent Transportation Systems, ITSC 2022
PublisherIEEE - Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Inc.
Pages793-798
Number of pages6
ISBN (Electronic)9781665468800
ISBN (Print)9781665468817
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2022
Event25th IEEE International Conference on Intelligent Transportation Systems, ITSC 2022 - Macau, China
Duration: 2022 Oct 82022 Oct 12

Publication series

NameIEEE Conference on Intelligent Transportation Systems, Proceedings, ITSC
Volume2022-October

Conference

Conference25th IEEE International Conference on Intelligent Transportation Systems, ITSC 2022
Country/TerritoryChina
CityMacau
Period2022/10/082022/10/12

Subject classification (UKÄ)

  • Control Engineering

Free keywords

  • High-speed railway
  • LightGBM
  • Machine learning
  • Multi-Output Regression
  • Train arrival times

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