Simulating river flow to the Baltic Sea from climate simulations over the past millennium

L. Phil Graham, Jonas Olsson, Erik Kjellstrom, Jorgen Rosberg, Sara-Sofia Hellstrom, Ronny Berndtsson

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingPaper in conference proceedingpeer-review

10 Citations (SciVal)

Abstract

The aim of this study was to reconstruct river flow to the Baltic Sea using data from different periods during the past thousand years. A hydrological model coupled to simulations from climate models was used to estimate river flow. A "millennium" simulation of past climate from the ECHO-G coupled atmosphere-ocean global climate model provided climatological inputs. Results from this global model were downscaled with the RCA3 regional climate model over northern Europe. Temperature and precipitation from the downscaled simulation results were then used in the HBV hydrological model to simulate river flows to the Baltic Sea for the periods 1000-1199 and 1551-1929. These were compared with observations for the period 1921-2002. A general conclusion from this work is that although climate has varied during the past millennium, variability in annual river flow to the Baltic Sea does not appear more pronounced in recent years than during the previous millennium, or vice versa.
Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationBoreal Environment Research
PublisherFinnish Environment Institute
Pages173-182
Volume14
Publication statusPublished - 2009
Event5th Study Conference on BALTEX - Kuressaare, ESTONIA
Duration: 2007 Jun 42007 Jun 8

Publication series

Name
Number1
Volume14
ISSN (Print)1239-6095

Conference

Conference5th Study Conference on BALTEX
Period2007/06/042007/06/08

Subject classification (UKÄ)

  • Water Engineering

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