The black box of regional growth

Markus Grillitsch; Mikhail Martynovich; Rune Dahl Fitjar; Silje Haus-Reve

doi:10.1007/s10109-020-00341-3

The black box of regional growth

Markus Grillitsch, Mikhail Martynovich, Rune Dahl Fitjar, Silje Haus-Reve

University of Stavanger

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

Abstract

Regional growth models leave a large share of variation unexplained. While we should continuously aim to improve these models, the unique combination of conditions and human agency in each region will also invariably lead to region-specific growth trajectories. Theoretically, we should thus expect systematic deviations from growth predictions. We propose an approach to explore these unexplained deviations and to detect regions that perform unexpectedly well or badly in certain periods. We illustrate the approach using data for Sweden from 1990 to 2016. We find systematic patterns of unexplained periodic regional growth deviations outweighing the effect of generic structural factors.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	425-464
Journal	Journal of Geographical Systems
Issue number	23
Early online date	2021 Jan 29
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1007/s10109-020-00341-3
Publication status	Published - 2021

Subject classification (UKÄ)

Human Geography

Free keywords

Case selection methodology
Outlier regions
Path-dependency
Regional development
Regional growth models
Residual analysis

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10.1007/s10109-020-00341-3

Regional Growth against all odds
Grillitsch, M. (Project coordinator), Dahl Fitjar, R. (Researcher), Haus-Reve, S. (Researcher), Kolehmainen, J. (Researcher), Kurikka, H. (Researcher), Kuusk, K. (Researcher), Lundquist, K.-J. (Researcher), Martynovich, M. (Researcher), Miörner, J. (Researcher), Nilsson, M. (Researcher), Rekers, J. (Researcher), Sotarauta, M. (Researcher), Wiig Aslesen, H. (Researcher) & Stihl, L. (Research student)
2017/08/01 → 2021/08/31
Project: Research

Cite this

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title = "The black box of regional growth",

abstract = "Regional growth models leave a large share of variation unexplained. While we should continuously aim to improve these models, the unique combination of conditions and human agency in each region will also invariably lead to region-specific growth trajectories. Theoretically, we should thus expect systematic deviations from growth predictions. We propose an approach to explore these unexplained deviations and to detect regions that perform unexpectedly well or badly in certain periods. We illustrate the approach using data for Sweden from 1990 to 2016. We find systematic patterns of unexplained periodic regional growth deviations outweighing the effect of generic structural factors.",

keywords = "Case selection methodology, Outlier regions, Path-dependency, Regional development, Regional growth models, Residual analysis",

author = "Markus Grillitsch and Mikhail Martynovich and Fitjar, {Rune Dahl} and Silje Haus-Reve",

year = "2021",

doi = "10.1007/s10109-020-00341-3",

language = "English",

pages = "425--464",

journal = "Journal of Geographical Systems",

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TY - JOUR

T1 - The black box of regional growth

AU - Grillitsch, Markus

AU - Martynovich, Mikhail

AU - Fitjar, Rune Dahl

AU - Haus-Reve, Silje

PY - 2021

Y1 - 2021

N2 - Regional growth models leave a large share of variation unexplained. While we should continuously aim to improve these models, the unique combination of conditions and human agency in each region will also invariably lead to region-specific growth trajectories. Theoretically, we should thus expect systematic deviations from growth predictions. We propose an approach to explore these unexplained deviations and to detect regions that perform unexpectedly well or badly in certain periods. We illustrate the approach using data for Sweden from 1990 to 2016. We find systematic patterns of unexplained periodic regional growth deviations outweighing the effect of generic structural factors.

AB - Regional growth models leave a large share of variation unexplained. While we should continuously aim to improve these models, the unique combination of conditions and human agency in each region will also invariably lead to region-specific growth trajectories. Theoretically, we should thus expect systematic deviations from growth predictions. We propose an approach to explore these unexplained deviations and to detect regions that perform unexpectedly well or badly in certain periods. We illustrate the approach using data for Sweden from 1990 to 2016. We find systematic patterns of unexplained periodic regional growth deviations outweighing the effect of generic structural factors.

KW - Case selection methodology

KW - Outlier regions

KW - Path-dependency

KW - Regional development

KW - Regional growth models

KW - Residual analysis

U2 - 10.1007/s10109-020-00341-3

DO - 10.1007/s10109-020-00341-3

M3 - Article

AN - SCOPUS:85099960579

SN - 1435-5930

SP - 425

EP - 464

JO - Journal of Geographical Systems

JF - Journal of Geographical Systems

IS - 23

ER -

The black box of regional growth

Abstract

Subject classification (UKÄ)

Free keywords

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Projects

Regional Growth against all odds

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