Threats of projected changes in fire regime for newly affected areas in Europe and Northern Africa

Kirsten Thonicke; Arneth Almut; Wolfgang Knorr; Minchao Wu; Nikolaos Fyllas

Threats of projected changes in fire regime for newly affected areas in Europe and Northern Africa

Kirsten Thonicke, Arneth Almut, Wolfgang Knorr, Minchao Wu, Nikolaos Fyllas

Dept of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceeding › Book chapter › Popular science

Abstract

Under climate change conditions, climatic wildfire danger could also increase in ecosystems not dominated by fires until now. This increasing trend could lead to more area burned in the future. We have developed an algorithm to map new fire-prone areas in Europe and Northern Africa that identifies grid points where a rare fire event is becoming the mean at the end of the 21st century. When applying the model to simulated changes in future fire regimes it revealed that these new fire-prone areas would be found mostly in Eastern Europe. Depending on the climate scenario and vegetation-fire model used, it could also extend to central and South-Eastern Europe.

Original language	English
Title of host publication	Forest fires under climate, social and economic changes in Europe, the Mediterranean and other fire-affected areas of the world
Editors	José M. Moreno
Place of Publication	Toledo
Publisher	FUME
Pages	34-35
Number of pages	2
ISBN (Electronic)	978-84-695-9759-0
Publication status	Published - 2014 Jan 1

Subject classification (UKÄ)

Earth and Related Environmental Sciences

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

Access to Document

https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/69301173/FUME_Lessons%20Learned%20and%20Outlook.pdfLicence: CC BY-NC-SA

Land-atmosphere interactions and regional Earth system dynamics due to natural and anthropogenic vegetation changes
Wu, M. (PI), Rummukainen, M. (Supervisor), Schurgers, G. (Supervisor), Miller, P. (Supervisor), Smith, B. (Researcher), Samuelsson, P. (Researcher) & Janson, C. (Researcher)
2012/06/06 → 2017/02/03
Project: Dissertation

Cite this

Thonicke, K., Almut, A., Knorr, W., Wu, M., & Fyllas, N. (2014). Threats of projected changes in fire regime for newly affected areas in Europe and Northern Africa. In J. M. Moreno (Ed.), Forest fires under climate, social and economic changes in Europe, the Mediterranean and other fire-affected areas of the world (pp. 34-35). Article 15 FUME. https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/69301173/FUME_Lessons%20Learned%20and%20Outlook.pdf

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title = "Threats of projected changes in fire regime for newly affected areas in Europe and Northern Africa",

abstract = "Under climate change conditions, climatic wildfire danger could also increase in ecosystems not dominated by fires until now. This increasing trend could lead to more area burned in the future. We have developed an algorithm to map new fire-prone areas in Europe and Northern Africa that identifies grid points where a rare fire event is becoming the mean at the end of the 21st century. When applying the model to simulated changes in future fire regimes it revealed that these new fire-prone areas would be found mostly in Eastern Europe. Depending on the climate scenario and vegetation-fire model used, it could also extend to central and South-Eastern Europe.",

author = "Kirsten Thonicke and Arneth Almut and Wolfgang Knorr and Minchao Wu and Nikolaos Fyllas",

year = "2014",

month = jan,

day = "1",

language = "English",

pages = "34--35",

editor = "Moreno, {Jos{\'e} M. }",

booktitle = "Forest fires under climate, social and economic changes in Europe, the Mediterranean and other fire-affected areas of the world",

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Thonicke, K, Almut, A, Knorr, W, Wu, M & Fyllas, N 2014, Threats of projected changes in fire regime for newly affected areas in Europe and Northern Africa. in JM Moreno (ed.), Forest fires under climate, social and economic changes in Europe, the Mediterranean and other fire-affected areas of the world., 15, FUME, Toledo, pp. 34-35. <https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/69301173/FUME_Lessons%20Learned%20and%20Outlook.pdf>

Threats of projected changes in fire regime for newly affected areas in Europe and Northern Africa. / Thonicke, Kirsten; Almut, Arneth; Knorr, Wolfgang et al.
Forest fires under climate, social and economic changes in Europe, the Mediterranean and other fire-affected areas of the world. ed. / José M. Moreno. Toledo: FUME, 2014. p. 34-35 15.

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceeding › Book chapter › Popular science

TY - CHAP

T1 - Threats of projected changes in fire regime for newly affected areas in Europe and Northern Africa

AU - Thonicke, Kirsten

AU - Almut, Arneth

AU - Knorr, Wolfgang

AU - Wu, Minchao

AU - Fyllas, Nikolaos

PY - 2014/1/1

Y1 - 2014/1/1

N2 - Under climate change conditions, climatic wildfire danger could also increase in ecosystems not dominated by fires until now. This increasing trend could lead to more area burned in the future. We have developed an algorithm to map new fire-prone areas in Europe and Northern Africa that identifies grid points where a rare fire event is becoming the mean at the end of the 21st century. When applying the model to simulated changes in future fire regimes it revealed that these new fire-prone areas would be found mostly in Eastern Europe. Depending on the climate scenario and vegetation-fire model used, it could also extend to central and South-Eastern Europe.

AB - Under climate change conditions, climatic wildfire danger could also increase in ecosystems not dominated by fires until now. This increasing trend could lead to more area burned in the future. We have developed an algorithm to map new fire-prone areas in Europe and Northern Africa that identifies grid points where a rare fire event is becoming the mean at the end of the 21st century. When applying the model to simulated changes in future fire regimes it revealed that these new fire-prone areas would be found mostly in Eastern Europe. Depending on the climate scenario and vegetation-fire model used, it could also extend to central and South-Eastern Europe.

M3 - Book chapter

SP - 34

EP - 35

BT - Forest fires under climate, social and economic changes in Europe, the Mediterranean and other fire-affected areas of the world

A2 - Moreno, José M.

PB - FUME

CY - Toledo

ER -

Threats of projected changes in fire regime for newly affected areas in Europe and Northern Africa

Abstract

Subject classification (UKÄ)

UN SDGs

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Projects

Land-atmosphere interactions and regional Earth system dynamics due to natural and anthropogenic vegetation changes

Cite this