Towards a stage model of regional industrial path transformation

The recent debate on innovation-based structural change in Evolutionary Economic Geography is characterised by a strong focus on the rise of new industrial paths. This paper seeks to shift attention and cast light on radical innovation activities occurring within existing paths without necessarily leading to their dissolution. Departing from a systemic perspective of path development we propose a stage model of path transformation. We outline how radical change becomes initiated, reinforced and finally consolidated in established industrial paths. Particular attention is devoted to the ways in which actors–influenced by ‘the past’ and driven by visions and expectations (that is, ‘the future’)–exert agency to stimulate asset modification processes that are assumed to underpin path transformation and the reconfiguration of the wider support structures. The framework is applied to the analysis of the automotive industry in West Sweden, which is currently transforming towards the development of self-driving cars.