Transatlantic Transitions: Responses to the Russian Threat in the Baltic Sea Region, 2014-2020

The overall aim of this thesis is to explore alliance formation and management in a regional setting, by analyzing responses to the Russian threat in the Baltic Sea region during the years 2014-2020. In particular, the study develops the concept of an informal ally and sheds lights on alliance formation from a small state perspective. In line with a realist approach, the study takes the impact of the international system on the regional setting as its point of departure in assessing small state responses to a great power threat. Through its case-study design, the thesis investigates the American engagement in NATO after the illegal Russian annexation of Crimea in 2014, and its effect upon Baltic Sea security and the alliance. Furthermore, the study demonstrates how Sweden and Finland, as close partners, were integrated into collective defense to the extent that they became informal allies in 2016. Still, Sweden and Finland did not formally join NATO at that time. The study sheds light on domestic factors that in the Swedish case can explain lack of policy flexibility despite recognition of the Russian threat to national security. Theoretically, the study draws on structural realism and neoclassical realism while contributing to alliance theory by introducing the notion of informal ally and by presenting an analytical framework to trace how such a status emerges. Moreover, the thesis shows how integration strategies can be evaluated, thereby facilitating the study of small state responses to a great power threat. Empirically, the study presents rich material on a formative period for NATO and the Baltic Sea region.