Understanding drought dynamics during dry season in Eastern Northeast Brazil

Denis Duda Costa, Thiago A. da Silva Pereira, Carlos R. Fragoso, Kaveh Madani, Cintia B. Uvo

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

Abstract

Eastern Northeast Brazil (ENEB) generally experiences a high variability in precipitation in the dry season, with amplitudes that can overcome 500mm. The understanding of this variability can help in mitigating the socio-economic issues related to the planning and management of water resources this region, which is highly vulnerable to drought. This work aims to assess spatio-temporal variability of precipitation during the dry season and investigate the relationships between climate phenomena and drought events in the ENEB, using univariate (Spearman correlation) and multivariate statistical techniques, such as Principal Component Analysis, Cluster Analysis, and Maximum Covariance Analysis. The results indicate that the variability of precipitation in the dry season can be explained mainly (62%) by local physical conditions and climate conditions have a secondary contribution. Further analysis of the larger anomalous events suggests that the state of Atlantic and Pacific oceans can govern the occurrence of those events, and the conditions of Atlantic Ocean can be considered a potential modulator of anomalous phenomena of precipitation in ENEB.

Original languageEnglish
Article number69
JournalFrontiers in Earth Science
Volume4
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2016 Jun 22

Subject classification (UKÄ)

  • Oceanography, Hydrology and Water Resources

Free keywords

  • Climate indices
  • Drought
  • Extreme events
  • Northeast Brazil
  • Semiarid

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