Using Expert Knowledge to Develop a Vulnerability and Adaptation Framework and Methodology for Application in Tropical Island Communities

Climate change threatens tropical coastal communities and ecosystems. Governments, resource managers, and communities recognize the value of assessing the social and ecological impacts of climate change, but there is little consensus on the most effective framework to support vulnerability and adaptation assessments. The framework presented in this research is based on a gap analysis developed from the recommendations of climate and adaptation experts. The article highlights social and ecological factors that affect vulnerability to climate change; adaptive capacity and adaptation options informing policy and conservation management decisions; and a methodology including criteria to assess current and future vulnerability to climate change. The framework is intended for conservation practitioners working in developing countries, small island nations, and traditional communities. It identifies core components that assess climate change impacts on coastal communities and environments at the local scale, and supports the identification of locally relevant adaptation strategies. Although the literature supporting vulnerability adaptation assessments is extensive, little emphasis has been placed on the systematic validation of these tools. To address this, we validate the framework using the Delphi technique, a group facilitation technique used to achieve convergence of expert opinion, and address gaps in previous vulnerability assessments.