Wetter trend in source region of Yangtze River by runoff simulating based on Grid-RCCC-WBM

Exploring the future hydroclimatic conditions of source region of Yangtze River (SRYaR), an alpine affected by climate change significantly, is essential for basin water resources management and development ss global climate change intensifies and the process of climate warming and humidification in Northwest China. This study proposed a practical framework for assessing water resource response to the context of climate changes in alpine catchments from the respective of both runoff and hydroclimatic conditions. Utilizing Grid-RCCC-WBM driven by corrected climatic forcing from the global climate models, this study estimate the prospective overall warmer and wetter pattern in the source region of Yangtze River. The key results indicated that: (1) Under all future scenarios, both temperature and precipitation within the catchment exhibit a significant upward trend. Projections from multi-model ensembles (MME) suggest that during the mid-term period (2041–2060, MT), temperatures are expected to rise by [0.74 °C, 3.08 °C] compared to the baseline period (1995–2014), with precipitation changes ranging from [4.8%, 21.4%]. (2) Future runoff within the catchment exhibits a consistent increase, with a linear trend rate of 1.1 mm/decade. runoff changes in MT compared to the baseline period vary from [−5.1%, 33.7%]. Runoff decreases in the northern part of the catchment, while notable increases occur in the southeastern and western regions. (3) In the future, the ratio of catchment evaporation capacity to precipitation decreases in comparison to the baseline period with an augmentation in soil moisture, enhancing its capacity for water retention and reducing the conversion of precipitation to evaporation, resulting a wetting trend of the catchment. (4) The future snowpack in the catchment continues to decrease, with a significant reduction in both the proportion of snowfall relative to total precipitation and the proportion of snowmelt runoff relative to total runoff, the risk of water resources crisis in the watershed is escalating.