A runoff map based on numerically simulated precipitation and a projection of future runoff in Iceland

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle


The runoff of Iceland has been evaluated for the period 1961-1990, and changes in runoff from then to the period 2071-2100 predicted according to a future projection of climate change. The hydrological model WASIM-ETH was used, with meteorological data from the PSU/NCAR MM5 numerical weather model. The evaluation of the effects of climate change on water resources was based on a future climate simulation from the HIRHAM regional climate model with boundary conditions from the HadAM3H global climate model using A2 and B2 emissions scenarios. Future runoff was shown to become much higher in 2071-2100 compared to 1961-1990, predominantly due to increased glacial melt caused by increased temperature. Furthermore, changes in runoff seasonality would be substantial. Thus, according to this projection there could be great changes in hydropower production potential associated with climate change in Iceland.


  • Jona Finndis Jonsdottir
Research areas and keywords

Subject classification (UKÄ) – MANDATORY

  • Water Engineering


  • climate change, scenario, discharge, Iceland, runoff
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)100-111
JournalHydrological Sciences Journal
Issue number1
Publication statusPublished - 2008
Publication categoryResearch