An urn model for odds ratio based adaptive phase III clinical trials

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Abstract

We study the limiting behaviour of a generalized Polya urn, motivated by adaptive data-dependent allocation designs, which are used in Phase III clinical trials in order to allocate a larger number of patients to the better treatment. We establish rigorous limiting results for the model, including the Central Limit Theorem, thus providing the theoretical background for using the odds ratio-based adaptive designs.

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Research areas and keywords

Subject classification (UKÄ) – MANDATORY

  • Probability Theory and Statistics

Keywords

  • adaptive designs, Central Limit Theorem, limiting allocation probability, odds ratio estimates, play-the-winner rule
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)571-582
JournalMarkov Processes and Related Fields
Volume14
Issue number4
Publication statusPublished - 2008
Publication categoryResearch
Peer-reviewedYes