Biological ensemble modeling to evaluate potential futures of living marine resources

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Biological ensemble modeling to evaluate potential futures of living marine resources. / Gardmark, Anna; Lindegren, Martin; Neuenfeldt, Stefan; Blenckner, Thorsten; Heikinheimo, Outi; Muller-Karulis, Barbel; Niiranen, Susa; Tomczak, Maciej T.; Aro, Eero; Wikström, Anders; Moellmann, Christian.

In: Ecological Applications, Vol. 23, No. 4, 2013, p. 742-754.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Harvard

Gardmark, A, Lindegren, M, Neuenfeldt, S, Blenckner, T, Heikinheimo, O, Muller-Karulis, B, Niiranen, S, Tomczak, MT, Aro, E, Wikström, A & Moellmann, C 2013, 'Biological ensemble modeling to evaluate potential futures of living marine resources', Ecological Applications, vol. 23, no. 4, pp. 742-754. https://doi.org/10.1890/12-0267.1

APA

Gardmark, A., Lindegren, M., Neuenfeldt, S., Blenckner, T., Heikinheimo, O., Muller-Karulis, B., ... Moellmann, C. (2013). Biological ensemble modeling to evaluate potential futures of living marine resources. Ecological Applications, 23(4), 742-754. https://doi.org/10.1890/12-0267.1

CBE

Gardmark A, Lindegren M, Neuenfeldt S, Blenckner T, Heikinheimo O, Muller-Karulis B, Niiranen S, Tomczak MT, Aro E, Wikström A, Moellmann C. 2013. Biological ensemble modeling to evaluate potential futures of living marine resources. Ecological Applications. 23(4):742-754. https://doi.org/10.1890/12-0267.1

MLA

Vancouver

Gardmark A, Lindegren M, Neuenfeldt S, Blenckner T, Heikinheimo O, Muller-Karulis B et al. Biological ensemble modeling to evaluate potential futures of living marine resources. Ecological Applications. 2013;23(4):742-754. https://doi.org/10.1890/12-0267.1

Author

Gardmark, Anna ; Lindegren, Martin ; Neuenfeldt, Stefan ; Blenckner, Thorsten ; Heikinheimo, Outi ; Muller-Karulis, Barbel ; Niiranen, Susa ; Tomczak, Maciej T. ; Aro, Eero ; Wikström, Anders ; Moellmann, Christian. / Biological ensemble modeling to evaluate potential futures of living marine resources. In: Ecological Applications. 2013 ; Vol. 23, No. 4. pp. 742-754.

RIS

TY - JOUR

T1 - Biological ensemble modeling to evaluate potential futures of living marine resources

AU - Gardmark, Anna

AU - Lindegren, Martin

AU - Neuenfeldt, Stefan

AU - Blenckner, Thorsten

AU - Heikinheimo, Outi

AU - Muller-Karulis, Barbel

AU - Niiranen, Susa

AU - Tomczak, Maciej T.

AU - Aro, Eero

AU - Wikström, Anders

AU - Moellmann, Christian

PY - 2013

Y1 - 2013

N2 - Natural resource management requires approaches to understand and handle sources of uncertainty in future responses of complex systems to human activities. Here we present one such approach, the "biological ensemble modeling approach,'' using the Eastern Baltic cod (Gadus morhua callarias) as an example. The core of the approach is to expose an ensemble of models with different ecological assumptions to climate forcing, using multiple realizations of each climate scenario. We simulated the long-term response of cod to future fishing and climate change in seven ecological models ranging from single-species to food web models. These models were analyzed using the "biological ensemble modeling approach'' by which we (1) identified a key ecological mechanism explaining the differences in simulated cod responses between models, (2) disentangled the uncertainty caused by differences in ecological model assumptions from the statistical uncertainty of future climate, and (3) identified results common for the whole model ensemble. Species interactions greatly influenced the simulated response of cod to fishing and climate, as well as the degree to which the statistical uncertainty of climate trajectories carried through to uncertainty of cod responses. Models ignoring the feedback from prey on cod showed large interannual fluctuations in cod dynamics and were more sensitive to the underlying uncertainty of climate forcing than models accounting for such stabilizing predator-prey feedbacks. Yet in all models, intense fishing prevented recovery, and climate change further decreased the cod population. Our study demonstrates how the biological ensemble modeling approach makes it possible to evaluate the relative importance of different sources of uncertainty in future species responses, as well as to seek scientific conclusions and sustainable management solutions robust to uncertainty of food web processes in the face of climate change.

AB - Natural resource management requires approaches to understand and handle sources of uncertainty in future responses of complex systems to human activities. Here we present one such approach, the "biological ensemble modeling approach,'' using the Eastern Baltic cod (Gadus morhua callarias) as an example. The core of the approach is to expose an ensemble of models with different ecological assumptions to climate forcing, using multiple realizations of each climate scenario. We simulated the long-term response of cod to future fishing and climate change in seven ecological models ranging from single-species to food web models. These models were analyzed using the "biological ensemble modeling approach'' by which we (1) identified a key ecological mechanism explaining the differences in simulated cod responses between models, (2) disentangled the uncertainty caused by differences in ecological model assumptions from the statistical uncertainty of future climate, and (3) identified results common for the whole model ensemble. Species interactions greatly influenced the simulated response of cod to fishing and climate, as well as the degree to which the statistical uncertainty of climate trajectories carried through to uncertainty of cod responses. Models ignoring the feedback from prey on cod showed large interannual fluctuations in cod dynamics and were more sensitive to the underlying uncertainty of climate forcing than models accounting for such stabilizing predator-prey feedbacks. Yet in all models, intense fishing prevented recovery, and climate change further decreased the cod population. Our study demonstrates how the biological ensemble modeling approach makes it possible to evaluate the relative importance of different sources of uncertainty in future species responses, as well as to seek scientific conclusions and sustainable management solutions robust to uncertainty of food web processes in the face of climate change.

KW - climate change

KW - Eastern Baltic cod

KW - environmental variation

KW - exploitation

KW - fisheries management

KW - food web models

KW - Gadus morhua

KW - callarias

KW - model uncertainty

KW - scenario analysis

KW - species interactions

U2 - 10.1890/12-0267.1

DO - 10.1890/12-0267.1

M3 - Article

VL - 23

SP - 742

EP - 754

JO - Ecological Appplications

T2 - Ecological Appplications

JF - Ecological Appplications

SN - 1051-0761

IS - 4

ER -