Decision making with unreliable probabilities

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle


This paper presents a decision theory which allows subjects to account for the uncertainties of their probability estimates. This is accomplished by modelling beliefs about states of nature by means of a class of probability measures. In order to represent uncertainties of those beliefs a measure of epistemic reliability is introduced. The suggested decision theory is evaluated in the light of empirical evidence on ambiguity and uncertainty in decision making. The theory is also compared to Tversky & Kahneman's prospect theory.


Research areas and keywords

Subject classification (UKÄ) – MANDATORY

  • Philosophy
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)240-251
JournalBritish Journal of Mathematical & Statistical Psychology
Issue number2
Publication statusPublished - 1983
Publication categoryResearch

Related research output

Peter Gärdenfors & Nils-Eric Sahlin, 1987, System Design and Human Interaction. Sage, A. P. (ed.). IEEE - Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Inc., p. 102-121

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingBook chapter

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