Decision making with unreliable probabilities

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Decision making with unreliable probabilities. / Gärdenfors, Peter; Sahlin, Nils-Eric.

In: British Journal of Mathematical & Statistical Psychology, Vol. 36, No. 2, 1983, p. 240-251.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

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TY - JOUR

T1 - Decision making with unreliable probabilities

AU - Gärdenfors, Peter

AU - Sahlin, Nils-Eric

PY - 1983

Y1 - 1983

N2 - This paper presents a decision theory which allows subjects to account for the uncertainties of their probability estimates. This is accomplished by modelling beliefs about states of nature by means of a class of probability measures. In order to represent uncertainties of those beliefs a measure of epistemic reliability is introduced. The suggested decision theory is evaluated in the light of empirical evidence on ambiguity and uncertainty in decision making. The theory is also compared to Tversky & Kahneman's prospect theory.

AB - This paper presents a decision theory which allows subjects to account for the uncertainties of their probability estimates. This is accomplished by modelling beliefs about states of nature by means of a class of probability measures. In order to represent uncertainties of those beliefs a measure of epistemic reliability is introduced. The suggested decision theory is evaluated in the light of empirical evidence on ambiguity and uncertainty in decision making. The theory is also compared to Tversky & Kahneman's prospect theory.

U2 - 10.1111/j.2044-8317.1983.tb01130.x

DO - 10.1111/j.2044-8317.1983.tb01130.x

M3 - Article

VL - 36

SP - 240

EP - 251

JO - British Journal of Mathematical and Statistical Psychology

JF - British Journal of Mathematical and Statistical Psychology

SN - 0007-1102

IS - 2

ER -