Downscaling of GCM forecasts to streamflow over Scandinavia

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Downscaling of GCM forecasts to streamflow over Scandinavia. / Nilsson, Patrik; Bertacchi Uvo, Cintia; Landman, Willem A; Nguyen, Tinh D.

In: Nordic Hydrology, Vol. 39, No. 1, 2008, p. 17-26.

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Nilsson, Patrik ; Bertacchi Uvo, Cintia ; Landman, Willem A ; Nguyen, Tinh D. / Downscaling of GCM forecasts to streamflow over Scandinavia. In: Nordic Hydrology. 2008 ; Vol. 39, No. 1. pp. 17-26.

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TY - JOUR

T1 - Downscaling of GCM forecasts to streamflow over Scandinavia

AU - Nilsson, Patrik

AU - Bertacchi Uvo, Cintia

AU - Landman, Willem A

AU - Nguyen, Tinh D

PY - 2008

Y1 - 2008

N2 - A seasonal forecasting technique to produce probabilistic and deterministic streamflow forecasts for 23 basins in Norway and northern Sweden is developed in this work. Large scale circulation and moisture fields, forecasted by the ECHAM4.5 model 4 months in advance, are used to forecast spring flows. The technique includes model output statistics (MOS) based on a non-linear Neural Network (NN) approach. Results show that streamflow forecasts from Global Circulation Model (GCM) predictions, for the Scandinavia region are viable and highest skill values were found for basins located in south-western Norway. The physical interpretation of the forecasting skill is that stations close to the Norwegian coast are directly exposed to prevailing winds from the Atlantic ocean, which constitute the principal source of predictive information from the atmosphere on the seasonal timescale.

AB - A seasonal forecasting technique to produce probabilistic and deterministic streamflow forecasts for 23 basins in Norway and northern Sweden is developed in this work. Large scale circulation and moisture fields, forecasted by the ECHAM4.5 model 4 months in advance, are used to forecast spring flows. The technique includes model output statistics (MOS) based on a non-linear Neural Network (NN) approach. Results show that streamflow forecasts from Global Circulation Model (GCM) predictions, for the Scandinavia region are viable and highest skill values were found for basins located in south-western Norway. The physical interpretation of the forecasting skill is that stations close to the Norwegian coast are directly exposed to prevailing winds from the Atlantic ocean, which constitute the principal source of predictive information from the atmosphere on the seasonal timescale.

KW - neural networks

KW - statistic

KW - model output

KW - general circulation model

KW - downscaling

KW - forecasting

U2 - 10.2166/nh.2008.027

DO - 10.2166/nh.2008.027

M3 - Article

VL - 39

SP - 17

EP - 26

JO - Nordic Hydrology

JF - Nordic Hydrology

SN - 1998-9563

IS - 1

ER -