Interactions between climate change, competition, dispersal, and disturbances in a tree migration model

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Abstract

Potentially significant shifts in the geographical patterns of vegetation are an expected result of climate change. However, the importance of local processes (e.g., dispersal, competition, or disturbance) has been often ignored in climate change modeling. We develop an individual-based simulation approach to assess how these mechanisms affect migration rate. We simulate the northward progression of a theoretical tree species when climate change makes northern habitat suitable. We test how the rate of progression is affected by (1) competition with a resident species, (2) interactions with disturbance regimes, (3) species dispersal kernel, and (4) the intensity of climate change over time. Results reveal a strong response of species' expansion rate to the presence of a local competitor, as well as nonlinear effects of disturbance. We discuss these results in light of current knowledge of northern forest dynamics and results found in the climatic research literature.

Details

Authors
External organisations
  • University of Guelph
Research areas and keywords

Subject classification (UKÄ) – MANDATORY

  • Ecology
  • Climate Research

Keywords

  • Boreal forest, Disturbance regime, Forest dynamics, Simulation model, Species range, Tree colonization
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)209-220
Number of pages12
JournalTheoretical Ecology
Volume1
Issue number4
Publication statusPublished - 2008
Publication categoryResearch
Peer-reviewedYes
Externally publishedYes