Large potential for crop production adaptation depends on available future varieties

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Large potential for crop production adaptation depends on available future varieties. / Zabel, Florian; Müller, Christoph; Elliott, Joshua; Minoli, Sara; Jägermeyr, Jonas; Schneider, Julia M.; Franke, James A.; Moyer, Elisabeth; Dury, Marie; Francois, Louis; Folberth, Christian; Liu, Wenfeng; Pugh, Thomas A.M.; Olin, Stefan; Rabin, Sam S.; Mauser, Wolfram; Hank, Tobias; Ruane, Alex C.; Asseng, Senthold.

In: Global Change Biology, 2021.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Harvard

Zabel, F, Müller, C, Elliott, J, Minoli, S, Jägermeyr, J, Schneider, JM, Franke, JA, Moyer, E, Dury, M, Francois, L, Folberth, C, Liu, W, Pugh, TAM, Olin, S, Rabin, SS, Mauser, W, Hank, T, Ruane, AC & Asseng, S 2021, 'Large potential for crop production adaptation depends on available future varieties', Global Change Biology. https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.15649

APA

Zabel, F., Müller, C., Elliott, J., Minoli, S., Jägermeyr, J., Schneider, J. M., Franke, J. A., Moyer, E., Dury, M., Francois, L., Folberth, C., Liu, W., Pugh, T. A. M., Olin, S., Rabin, S. S., Mauser, W., Hank, T., Ruane, A. C., & Asseng, S. (2021). Large potential for crop production adaptation depends on available future varieties. Global Change Biology. https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.15649

CBE

Zabel F, Müller C, Elliott J, Minoli S, Jägermeyr J, Schneider JM, Franke JA, Moyer E, Dury M, Francois L, Folberth C, Liu W, Pugh TAM, Olin S, Rabin SS, Mauser W, Hank T, Ruane AC, Asseng S. 2021. Large potential for crop production adaptation depends on available future varieties. Global Change Biology. https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.15649

MLA

Vancouver

Author

Zabel, Florian ; Müller, Christoph ; Elliott, Joshua ; Minoli, Sara ; Jägermeyr, Jonas ; Schneider, Julia M. ; Franke, James A. ; Moyer, Elisabeth ; Dury, Marie ; Francois, Louis ; Folberth, Christian ; Liu, Wenfeng ; Pugh, Thomas A.M. ; Olin, Stefan ; Rabin, Sam S. ; Mauser, Wolfram ; Hank, Tobias ; Ruane, Alex C. ; Asseng, Senthold. / Large potential for crop production adaptation depends on available future varieties. In: Global Change Biology. 2021.

RIS

TY - JOUR

T1 - Large potential for crop production adaptation depends on available future varieties

AU - Zabel, Florian

AU - Müller, Christoph

AU - Elliott, Joshua

AU - Minoli, Sara

AU - Jägermeyr, Jonas

AU - Schneider, Julia M.

AU - Franke, James A.

AU - Moyer, Elisabeth

AU - Dury, Marie

AU - Francois, Louis

AU - Folberth, Christian

AU - Liu, Wenfeng

AU - Pugh, Thomas A.M.

AU - Olin, Stefan

AU - Rabin, Sam S.

AU - Mauser, Wolfram

AU - Hank, Tobias

AU - Ruane, Alex C.

AU - Asseng, Senthold

PY - 2021

Y1 - 2021

N2 - Climate change affects global agricultural production and threatens food security. Faster phenological development of crops due to climate warming is one of the main drivers for potential future yield reductions. To counter the effect of faster maturity, adapted varieties would require more heat units to regain the previous growing period length. In this study, we investigate the effects of variety adaptation on global caloric production under four different future climate change scenarios for maize, rice, soybean, and wheat. Thereby, we empirically identify areas that could require new varieties and areas where variety adaptation could be achieved by shifting existing varieties into new regions. The study uses an ensemble of seven global gridded crop models and five CMIP6 climate models. We found that 39% (SSP5-8.5) of global cropland could require new crop varieties to avoid yield loss from climate change by the end of the century. At low levels of warming (SSP1-2.6), 85% of currently cultivated land can draw from existing varieties to shift within an agro-ecological zone for adaptation. The assumptions on available varieties for adaptation have major impacts on the effectiveness of variety adaptation, which could more than half in SSP5-8.5. The results highlight that region-specific breeding efforts are required to allow for a successful adaptation to climate change.

AB - Climate change affects global agricultural production and threatens food security. Faster phenological development of crops due to climate warming is one of the main drivers for potential future yield reductions. To counter the effect of faster maturity, adapted varieties would require more heat units to regain the previous growing period length. In this study, we investigate the effects of variety adaptation on global caloric production under four different future climate change scenarios for maize, rice, soybean, and wheat. Thereby, we empirically identify areas that could require new varieties and areas where variety adaptation could be achieved by shifting existing varieties into new regions. The study uses an ensemble of seven global gridded crop models and five CMIP6 climate models. We found that 39% (SSP5-8.5) of global cropland could require new crop varieties to avoid yield loss from climate change by the end of the century. At low levels of warming (SSP1-2.6), 85% of currently cultivated land can draw from existing varieties to shift within an agro-ecological zone for adaptation. The assumptions on available varieties for adaptation have major impacts on the effectiveness of variety adaptation, which could more than half in SSP5-8.5. The results highlight that region-specific breeding efforts are required to allow for a successful adaptation to climate change.

KW - AgMIP

KW - breeding

KW - climate change

KW - climate scenarios

KW - CMIP6

KW - crop traits

KW - cultivar adaptation

KW - food security

KW - GGCMI

KW - variety adaptation

U2 - 10.1111/gcb.15649

DO - 10.1111/gcb.15649

M3 - Article

C2 - 33998112

AN - SCOPUS:85105772888

JO - Global Change Biology

JF - Global Change Biology

SN - 1354-1013

ER -