Lung function, forced expiratory volume in 1 s decline and COPD hospitalisations over 44 years of follow-up.

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T1 - Lung function, forced expiratory volume in 1 s decline and COPD hospitalisations over 44 years of follow-up.

AU - Zaigham, Suneela

AU - Wollmer, Per

AU - Engström, Gunnar

PY - 2016

Y1 - 2016

N2 - The use of baseline lung function in the prediction of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) hospitalisations, all-cause mortality and lung function decline was assessed in the population-based "Men Born in 1914" cohort.Spirometry was assessed at age 55 years in 689 subjects, of whom 392 had spirometry reassessed at age 68 years. The cohort was divided into three groups using fixed ratio (FR) and lower limit of normal (LLN) criterion: forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV1)/vital capacity (VC) ≥70%, FEV1/VC <70% but ≥LLN (FR(+)LLN(-)), and FEV1/VC <70% and <LLN (FR(+)LLN(+)).Over 44 years of follow-up, 88 men were hospitalised due to COPD and 686 died. Hazard ratios (95% CI) for incident COPD hospitalisation were 4.15 (2.24-7.69) for FR(+)LLN(-) and 7.88 (4.82-12.87) for FR(+)LLN(+) (reference FEV1/VC ≥70%). Hazard ratios for death were 1.30 (0.98-1.72) for FR(+)LLN(-) and 1.58 (1.25-2.00) for FR(+)LLN(+). The adjusted FEV1 decline between 55 and 68 years of age was higher for FR(+)LLN(-) and FR(+)LLN(+) relative to the reference. Of those with FR(+)LLN(-) at 55 years, 53% had progressed to the FR(+)LLN(+) group at 68 years.Airflow obstruction at age 55 years is a powerful risk factor for future COPD hospitalisations. The FR(+)LLN(-) group should be carefully evaluated in clinical practice in relation to future risks and potential benefit from early intervention. This is reinforced by the increased FEV1 decline in this group.

AB - The use of baseline lung function in the prediction of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) hospitalisations, all-cause mortality and lung function decline was assessed in the population-based "Men Born in 1914" cohort.Spirometry was assessed at age 55 years in 689 subjects, of whom 392 had spirometry reassessed at age 68 years. The cohort was divided into three groups using fixed ratio (FR) and lower limit of normal (LLN) criterion: forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV1)/vital capacity (VC) ≥70%, FEV1/VC <70% but ≥LLN (FR(+)LLN(-)), and FEV1/VC <70% and <LLN (FR(+)LLN(+)).Over 44 years of follow-up, 88 men were hospitalised due to COPD and 686 died. Hazard ratios (95% CI) for incident COPD hospitalisation were 4.15 (2.24-7.69) for FR(+)LLN(-) and 7.88 (4.82-12.87) for FR(+)LLN(+) (reference FEV1/VC ≥70%). Hazard ratios for death were 1.30 (0.98-1.72) for FR(+)LLN(-) and 1.58 (1.25-2.00) for FR(+)LLN(+). The adjusted FEV1 decline between 55 and 68 years of age was higher for FR(+)LLN(-) and FR(+)LLN(+) relative to the reference. Of those with FR(+)LLN(-) at 55 years, 53% had progressed to the FR(+)LLN(+) group at 68 years.Airflow obstruction at age 55 years is a powerful risk factor for future COPD hospitalisations. The FR(+)LLN(-) group should be carefully evaluated in clinical practice in relation to future risks and potential benefit from early intervention. This is reinforced by the increased FEV1 decline in this group.

U2 - 10.1183/13993003.01575-2015

DO - 10.1183/13993003.01575-2015

M3 - Article

VL - 47

SP - 742

EP - 750

JO - European Respiratory Journal

T2 - European Respiratory Journal

JF - European Respiratory Journal

SN - 1399-3003

IS - 3

ER -