Model for individual prediction of diabetes up to 5 years after gestational diabetes mellitus

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@article{468f733092d74b10b087ee7ba7ac57fe,
title = "Model for individual prediction of diabetes up to 5 years after gestational diabetes mellitus",
abstract = "AIMS: To identify predictors of diabetes development up to 5 years after gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) and to develop a prediction model for individual use.METHODS: Five years after GDM, a 75-g oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT) was performed in 362 women, excluding women already diagnosed with diabetes at 1- to 2-year follow-up or later (n = 45). All but 21 women had results from follow-up at 1-2 years, while 84 women were lost from that point. Predictive variables were identified by logistic regression analysis.RESULTS: Five years after GDM, 28/362 women (8 {\%}) were diagnosed with diabetes whereas 187/362 (52 {\%}) had normal glucose tolerance (NGT). Of the latter, 139/187 (74 {\%}) also had NGT at 1- to 2-year follow-up. In simple regression analysis, using NGT at 1-2 years and at 5 years as the reference, diabetes at 1- to 2-year follow-up or later was clearly associated with easily assessable clinical variables, such as BMI at 1- to 2-year follow-up, 2-h OGTT glucose concentration during pregnancy, and non-European origin (P < 0.0001). A prediction model based on these variables resulting in 86 {\%} correct classifications, with an area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve of 0.91 (95 {\%} CI 0.86-0.95), was applied in a function-sheet line diagram illustrating the individual effect of weight on diabetes risk.CONCLUSIONS: The results highlight the importance of BMI as a potentially modifiable risk factor for diabetes after GDM. Our proposed prediction model performed well, and should encourage validation in other populations in future studies.",
author = "Claes Ignell and Magnus Ekelund and Eva Anderberg and Kerstin Berntorp",
year = "2016",
doi = "10.1186/s40064-016-1953-7",
language = "English",
volume = "5",
journal = "SpringerPlus",
issn = "2193-1801",
publisher = "Springer",

}