Modeling dengue outbreaks

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Abstract

We introduce a dengue model (SEIR) where the human individuals are treated on an individual basis (IBM) while the mosquito population, produced by an independent model, is treated by compartments (SEI). We study the spread of epidemics by the sole action of the mosquito. Exponential, deterministic and experimental distributions for the (human) exposed period are considered in two weather scenarios, one corresponding to temperate climate and the other to tropical climate. Virus circulation, final epidemic size and duration of outbreaks are considered showing that the results present little sensitivity to the statistics followed by the exposed period provided the median of the distributions are in coincidence. Only the time between an introduced (imported) case and the appearance of the first symptomatic secondary case is sensitive to this distribution. We finally show that the IBM model introduced is precisely a realization of a compartmental model, and that at least in this case, the choice between compartmental models or IBM is only a matter of convenience. (C) 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Details

Authors
  • Marcelo Otero
  • Daniel H. Barmak
  • Claudio O. Dorso
  • Hernan G. Solari
  • Mario Natiello
Organisations
Research areas and keywords

Subject classification (UKÄ) – MANDATORY

  • Mathematics

Keywords

  • Epidemiology, Dengue, Individual based model, Compartmental model, Stochastic
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)87-95
JournalMathematical Biosciences
Volume232
Issue number2
Publication statusPublished - 2011
Publication categoryResearch
Peer-reviewedYes