Predicting pilot error: Testing a new methodology and a multi-methods and analysts approach

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle


The Human Error Template (HET) is a recently developed methodology for predicting design-induced pilot error. This article describes a validation study undertaken to compare the performance of HET against three contemporary Human Error Identification (HEI) approaches when used to predict pilot errors for an approach and landing task and also to compare analyst error predictions to an approach to enhancing error prediction sensitivity: the multiple analysts and methods approach, whereby multiple analyst predictions using a range of HEI techniques are pooled. The findings indicate that, of the four methodologies used in isolation, analysts using the HET methodology offered the most accurate error predictions, and also that the multiple analysts and methods approach was more successful overall in terms of error prediction sensitivity than the three other methods but not the HET approach. The results suggest that when predicting design-induced error, it is appropriate to use a toolkit of different HEI approaches and multiple analysts in order to heighten error prediction sensitivity. (c) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.


  • Neville A. Stanton
  • Paul Salmon
  • Don Harris
  • Andrew Marshall
  • Jason Demagalski
  • Mark S. Young
  • Thomas Waldmann
  • Sidney Dekker
Research areas and keywords

Subject classification (UKÄ) – MANDATORY

  • Production Engineering, Human Work Science and Ergonomics


  • and validity, Reliability, Error prediction, Human error, Human Error Identification
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)464-471
JournalApplied Ergonomics
Issue number3
Publication statusPublished - 2009
Publication categoryResearch