Risk prediction of recurrent venous thromboembolism: a multiple genetic risk model

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TY - JOUR

T1 - Risk prediction of recurrent venous thromboembolism

T2 - Journal of Thrombosis and Thrombolysis

AU - Ahmad, Abrar

AU - Sundquist, Kristina

AU - Palmér, Karolina

AU - Svensson, Peter J.

AU - Sundquist, Jan

AU - Memon, Ashfaque A.

PY - 2019

Y1 - 2019

N2 - A single genetic biomarker is unable to accurately predict the risk for venous thromboembolism (VTE) recurrence. We aimed to: (a) develop a multiple single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) model to predict the risk of VTE recurrence and (b) validate a previously described genetic risk score (GRS) and compare its performance with the model developed in this study. Twenty-two SNPs, including established and putative SNPs associated with VTE risk, were genotyped in the Malmö thrombophilia study cohort (MATS; n = 1465, follow-up ~ 10 years) by using TaqMan PCR. Out of 22-SNPs, 12 had an association with the risk of VTE recurrence and were included for calculating GRSs. The risk of VTE recurrence was calculated by stratifying patients according to number of risk alleles. In 12-SNP GRS, patients with ≥ 7 risk alleles were associated with higher risk of VTE recurrence compared to patients having ≤ 6 risk alleles. In a simplified model (8-SNP GRS), the discriminative power of 8-SNP GRS was similar to that of 12-SNP GRS based on post-test probabilities (PP). Furthermore, 8-SNP GRS further improved the risk prediction of VTE recurrence in unprovoked VTE and male patients (PP% = 15.4 vs 8.3, 17.1 vs 7.2 and 19.0 vs 7.1 for high risk groups vs low risk groups in whole population, males and unprovoked VTE patients respectively). In addition, we also validated previously described 5-SNP GRS in our cohort and found that the 8-SNP GRS performed better than the 5-SNP GRS in terms of higher PP. Our results show that a multiple SNP GRS consisting of 8-SNPs may be an effective model for prediction of VTE recurrence, particularly in unprovoked VTE and male patients.

AB - A single genetic biomarker is unable to accurately predict the risk for venous thromboembolism (VTE) recurrence. We aimed to: (a) develop a multiple single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) model to predict the risk of VTE recurrence and (b) validate a previously described genetic risk score (GRS) and compare its performance with the model developed in this study. Twenty-two SNPs, including established and putative SNPs associated with VTE risk, were genotyped in the Malmö thrombophilia study cohort (MATS; n = 1465, follow-up ~ 10 years) by using TaqMan PCR. Out of 22-SNPs, 12 had an association with the risk of VTE recurrence and were included for calculating GRSs. The risk of VTE recurrence was calculated by stratifying patients according to number of risk alleles. In 12-SNP GRS, patients with ≥ 7 risk alleles were associated with higher risk of VTE recurrence compared to patients having ≤ 6 risk alleles. In a simplified model (8-SNP GRS), the discriminative power of 8-SNP GRS was similar to that of 12-SNP GRS based on post-test probabilities (PP). Furthermore, 8-SNP GRS further improved the risk prediction of VTE recurrence in unprovoked VTE and male patients (PP% = 15.4 vs 8.3, 17.1 vs 7.2 and 19.0 vs 7.1 for high risk groups vs low risk groups in whole population, males and unprovoked VTE patients respectively). In addition, we also validated previously described 5-SNP GRS in our cohort and found that the 8-SNP GRS performed better than the 5-SNP GRS in terms of higher PP. Our results show that a multiple SNP GRS consisting of 8-SNPs may be an effective model for prediction of VTE recurrence, particularly in unprovoked VTE and male patients.

KW - Cox regression analyses

KW - Genetic variants

KW - Multiple SNPs model

KW - Recurrent VTE

U2 - 10.1007/s11239-018-1762-7

DO - 10.1007/s11239-018-1762-7

M3 - Article

VL - 47

SP - 216

EP - 226

JO - Journal of Thrombosis and Thrombolysis

JF - Journal of Thrombosis and Thrombolysis

SN - 1573-742X

IS - 2

ER -