Seed terminal velocity, wind turbulence, and demography drive the spread of an invasive tree in an analytical model

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Seed terminal velocity, wind turbulence, and demography drive the spread of an invasive tree in an analytical model. / Caplat, Paul; Nathan, Ran; Buckley, Yvonne M.

In: Ecology, Vol. 93, No. 2, 02.2012, p. 368-377.

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TY - JOUR

T1 - Seed terminal velocity, wind turbulence, and demography drive the spread of an invasive tree in an analytical model

AU - Caplat, Paul

AU - Nathan, Ran

AU - Buckley, Yvonne M.

PY - 2012/2

Y1 - 2012/2

N2 - Little is known about the relative importance of mechanistic drivers of plant spread, particularly when long-distance dispersal (LDD) events occur. Most methods to date approach LDD phenomenologically, and all mechanistic models, with one exception, have been implemented through simulation. Furthermore, the few recent mechanistically derived spread models have examined the relative role of different dispersal parameters using simulations, and a formal analytical approach has not yet been implemented. Here we incorporate an analytical mechanistic wind dispersal model (WALD) into a demographic matrix model within an analytical integrodifference equation spread model. We carry out analytical perturbation analysis on the combined model to determine the relative effects of dispersal and demographic traits and wind statistics on the spread of an invasive tree. Models are parameterized using data collected in situ and tested using independent data on historical spread. Predicted spread rates and direction match well the two historical phases of observed spread. Seed terminal velocity has the greatest potential influence on spread rate, and three wind properties (turbulence coefficient, mean horizontal wind speed, and standard deviation of vertical wind speed) are also important. Fecundity has marginal importance for spread rate, but juvenile survival and establishment are consistently important. This coupled empirical/ theoretical framework enables prediction of plant spread rate and direction using fundamental dispersal and demographic parameters and identifies the traits and environmental conditions that facilitate spread. The development of an analytical perturbation analysis for a mechanistic spread model will enable multispecies comparative studies to be easily implemented in the future.

AB - Little is known about the relative importance of mechanistic drivers of plant spread, particularly when long-distance dispersal (LDD) events occur. Most methods to date approach LDD phenomenologically, and all mechanistic models, with one exception, have been implemented through simulation. Furthermore, the few recent mechanistically derived spread models have examined the relative role of different dispersal parameters using simulations, and a formal analytical approach has not yet been implemented. Here we incorporate an analytical mechanistic wind dispersal model (WALD) into a demographic matrix model within an analytical integrodifference equation spread model. We carry out analytical perturbation analysis on the combined model to determine the relative effects of dispersal and demographic traits and wind statistics on the spread of an invasive tree. Models are parameterized using data collected in situ and tested using independent data on historical spread. Predicted spread rates and direction match well the two historical phases of observed spread. Seed terminal velocity has the greatest potential influence on spread rate, and three wind properties (turbulence coefficient, mean horizontal wind speed, and standard deviation of vertical wind speed) are also important. Fecundity has marginal importance for spread rate, but juvenile survival and establishment are consistently important. This coupled empirical/ theoretical framework enables prediction of plant spread rate and direction using fundamental dispersal and demographic parameters and identifies the traits and environmental conditions that facilitate spread. The development of an analytical perturbation analysis for a mechanistic spread model will enable multispecies comparative studies to be easily implemented in the future.

KW - Integrodifference equation

KW - Invasion biology

KW - Long-distance dispersal

KW - Matrix model

KW - Mechanistic model

KW - Mount Barker, New Zealand

KW - Pinus nigra

KW - Plant traits

KW - Population biology

KW - Seed terminal velocity

KW - Wald analytical long-distance dispersal kernel (WALD)

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=84860252658&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1890/11-0820.1

DO - 10.1890/11-0820.1

M3 - Article

C2 - 22624318

AN - SCOPUS:84860252658

VL - 93

SP - 368

EP - 377

JO - Ecology

JF - Ecology

SN - 0012-9658

IS - 2

ER -