Similar estimates of temperature impacts on global wheat yield by three independent methods

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle


The potential impact of global temperature change on global crop yield has recently been assessed with different methods. Here we show that grid-based and point-based simulations and statistical regressions (from historic records), without deliberate adaptation or CO 2 fertilization effects, produce similar estimates of temperature impact on wheat yields at global and national scales. With a 1 °C global temperature increase, global wheat yield is projected to decline between 4.1% and 6.4%. Projected relative temperature impacts from different methods were similar for major wheat-producing countries China, India, USA and France, but less so for Russia. Point-based and grid-based simulations, and to some extent the statistical regressions, were consistent in projecting that warmer regions are likely to suffer more yield loss with increasing temperature than cooler regions. By forming a multi-method ensemble, it was possible to quantify 'method uncertainty' in addition to model uncertainty. This significantly improves confidence in estimates of climate impacts on global food security.


  • Bing Liu
  • Senthold Asseng
  • Frank Ewert
  • Joshua Elliott
  • David B. Lobell
  • Pierre Martre
  • Alex C. Ruane
  • Daniel Wallach
  • James W. Jones
  • Cynthia Rosenzweig
  • Pramod K. Aggarwal
  • Phillip D. Alderman
  • Jakarat Anothai
  • Bruno Basso
  • Christian Biernath
  • Davide Cammarano
  • Andy Challinor
  • Delphine Deryng
  • Giacomo De Sanctis
  • Jordi Doltra
  • Elias Fereres
  • Christian Folberth
  • Margarita Garcia-Vila
  • Sebastian Gayler
  • Gerrit Hoogenboom
  • Leslie A. Hunt
  • Roberto C. Izaurralde
  • Mohamed Jabloun
  • Curtis D. Jones
  • Kurt C. Kersebaum
  • Bruce A. Kimball
  • Ann Kristin Koehler
  • Soora Naresh Kumar
  • Claas Nendel
  • Garry J. O'Leary
  • Jørgen E. Olesen
  • Michael J. Ottman
  • Taru Palosuo
  • P. V.Vara Prasad
  • Eckart Priesack
  • Matthew Reynolds
  • Ehsan E. Rezaei
  • Reimund P. Rötter
  • Erwin Schmid
  • Mikhail A. Semenov
  • Iurii Shcherbak
  • Elke Stehfest
  • Claudio O. Stöckle
  • Pierre Stratonovitch
  • Thilo Streck
  • Iwan Supit
  • Fulu Tao
  • Peter Thorburn
  • Katharina Waha
  • Gerard W. Wall
  • Enli Wang
  • Jeffrey W. White
  • Joost Wolf
  • Zhigan Zhao
  • Yan Zhu
External organisations
  • Nanjing Agricultural University
  • Florida Museum Natural History
  • University of Bonn
  • Leibniz-Zentrum fur Agrarlandschaftsforschung (ZALF) e. V.
  • Center for Climate Systems Research
  • University of Chicago
  • Stanford University
  • INRAE's Occitanie-Montpellier Centre
  • NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies
  • AGroécologie, Innovations, teRritoires - (AGIR)
  • Oklahoma State University, Stillwater
  • Prince of Songkla University
  • Michigan State University
  • Helmholtz Zentrum München
  • Scottish Crop Research Institute
  • University of Leeds
  • International Centre for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT)
  • European Commission Joint Research Centre, Brussels
  • Cantabrian Agricultural Research and Training Centre (CIFA)
  • University of Córdoba, Spain
  • World Orthopaedic Concern
  • International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
  • University of Hohenheim
  • Washington State University Prosser
  • University of Guelph
  • University of Maryland
  • Texas A and M University
  • Aarhus University
  • United States Department of Agriculture (USDA)
  • Landscape and Water Sciences
  • University of Arizona
  • Natural Resources Institute Finland (Luke)
  • Kansas State University
  • Karlsruhe Institute of Technology
  • University of Birmingham
  • CIMMYT Int.
  • Center for Development Research (ZEF)
  • University of Göttingen
  • University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences, Vienna
  • Rothamsted Research
  • Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency; Hague
  • Washington State University
  • Wageningen University
  • Chinese Academy of Sciences
  • CSIRO Agriculture Flagship, Brisbane
  • Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
  • CSIRO Agriculture
  • China Agricultural University
Research areas and keywords

Subject classification (UKÄ) – MANDATORY

  • Environmental Sciences
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)1130-1136
Number of pages7
JournalNature Climate Change
Issue number12
Publication statusPublished - 2016 Nov 24
Publication categoryResearch
Externally publishedYes