Similar estimates of temperature impacts on global wheat yield by three independent methods

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle


title = "Similar estimates of temperature impacts on global wheat yield by three independent methods",
abstract = "The potential impact of global temperature change on global crop yield has recently been assessed with different methods. Here we show that grid-based and point-based simulations and statistical regressions (from historic records), without deliberate adaptation or CO 2 fertilization effects, produce similar estimates of temperature impact on wheat yields at global and national scales. With a 1 °C global temperature increase, global wheat yield is projected to decline between 4.1% and 6.4%. Projected relative temperature impacts from different methods were similar for major wheat-producing countries China, India, USA and France, but less so for Russia. Point-based and grid-based simulations, and to some extent the statistical regressions, were consistent in projecting that warmer regions are likely to suffer more yield loss with increasing temperature than cooler regions. By forming a multi-method ensemble, it was possible to quantify 'method uncertainty' in addition to model uncertainty. This significantly improves confidence in estimates of climate impacts on global food security.",
author = "Bing Liu and Senthold Asseng and Frank Ewert and Joshua Elliott and Lobell, {David B.} and Pierre Martre and Ruane, {Alex C.} and Daniel Wallach and Jones, {James W.} and Cynthia Rosenzweig and Aggarwal, {Pramod K.} and Alderman, {Phillip D.} and Jakarat Anothai and Bruno Basso and Christian Biernath and Davide Cammarano and Andy Challinor and Delphine Deryng and {De Sanctis}, Giacomo and Jordi Doltra and Elias Fereres and Christian Folberth and Margarita Garcia-Vila and Sebastian Gayler and Gerrit Hoogenboom and Hunt, {Leslie A.} and Izaurralde, {Roberto C.} and Mohamed Jabloun and Jones, {Curtis D.} and Kersebaum, {Kurt C.} and Kimball, {Bruce A.} and Koehler, {Ann Kristin} and Kumar, {Soora Naresh} and Claas Nendel and O'Leary, {Garry J.} and Olesen, {J{\o}rgen E.} and Ottman, {Michael J.} and Taru Palosuo and Prasad, {P. V.Vara} and Eckart Priesack and Pugh, {Thomas A.M.} and Matthew Reynolds and Rezaei, {Ehsan E.} and R{\"o}tter, {Reimund P.} and Erwin Schmid and Semenov, {Mikhail A.} and Iurii Shcherbak and Elke Stehfest and St{\"o}ckle, {Claudio O.} and Pierre Stratonovitch and Thilo Streck and Iwan Supit and Fulu Tao and Peter Thorburn and Katharina Waha and Wall, {Gerard W.} and Enli Wang and White, {Jeffrey W.} and Joost Wolf and Zhigan Zhao and Yan Zhu",
year = "2016",
month = nov,
day = "24",
doi = "10.1038/nclimate3115",
language = "English",
volume = "6",
pages = "1130--1136",
journal = "Nature Climate Change",
issn = "1758-6798",
publisher = "Nature Research",
number = "12",