Similar estimates of temperature impacts on global wheat yield by three independent methods

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Similar estimates of temperature impacts on global wheat yield by three independent methods. / Liu, Bing; Asseng, Senthold; Ewert, Frank; Elliott, Joshua; Lobell, David B.; Martre, Pierre; Ruane, Alex C.; Wallach, Daniel; Jones, James W.; Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Aggarwal, Pramod K.; Alderman, Phillip D.; Anothai, Jakarat; Basso, Bruno; Biernath, Christian; Cammarano, Davide; Challinor, Andy; Deryng, Delphine; De Sanctis, Giacomo; Doltra, Jordi; Fereres, Elias; Folberth, Christian; Garcia-Vila, Margarita; Gayler, Sebastian; Hoogenboom, Gerrit; Hunt, Leslie A.; Izaurralde, Roberto C.; Jabloun, Mohamed; Jones, Curtis D.; Kersebaum, Kurt C.; Kimball, Bruce A.; Koehler, Ann Kristin; Kumar, Soora Naresh; Nendel, Claas; O'Leary, Garry J.; Olesen, Jørgen E.; Ottman, Michael J.; Palosuo, Taru; Prasad, P. V.Vara; Priesack, Eckart; Pugh, Thomas A.M.; Reynolds, Matthew; Rezaei, Ehsan E.; Rötter, Reimund P.; Schmid, Erwin; Semenov, Mikhail A.; Shcherbak, Iurii; Stehfest, Elke; Stöckle, Claudio O.; Stratonovitch, Pierre; Streck, Thilo; Supit, Iwan; Tao, Fulu; Thorburn, Peter; Waha, Katharina; Wall, Gerard W.; Wang, Enli; White, Jeffrey W.; Wolf, Joost; Zhao, Zhigan; Zhu, Yan.

In: Nature Climate Change, Vol. 6, No. 12, 24.11.2016, p. 1130-1136.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Harvard

Liu, B, Asseng, S, Ewert, F, Elliott, J, Lobell, DB, Martre, P, Ruane, AC, Wallach, D, Jones, JW, Rosenzweig, C, Aggarwal, PK, Alderman, PD, Anothai, J, Basso, B, Biernath, C, Cammarano, D, Challinor, A, Deryng, D, De Sanctis, G, Doltra, J, Fereres, E, Folberth, C, Garcia-Vila, M, Gayler, S, Hoogenboom, G, Hunt, LA, Izaurralde, RC, Jabloun, M, Jones, CD, Kersebaum, KC, Kimball, BA, Koehler, AK, Kumar, SN, Nendel, C, O'Leary, GJ, Olesen, JE, Ottman, MJ, Palosuo, T, Prasad, PVV, Priesack, E, Pugh, TAM, Reynolds, M, Rezaei, EE, Rötter, RP, Schmid, E, Semenov, MA, Shcherbak, I, Stehfest, E, Stöckle, CO, Stratonovitch, P, Streck, T, Supit, I, Tao, F, Thorburn, P, Waha, K, Wall, GW, Wang, E, White, JW, Wolf, J, Zhao, Z & Zhu, Y 2016, 'Similar estimates of temperature impacts on global wheat yield by three independent methods', Nature Climate Change, vol. 6, no. 12, pp. 1130-1136. https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3115

APA

Liu, B., Asseng, S., Ewert, F., Elliott, J., Lobell, D. B., Martre, P., Ruane, A. C., Wallach, D., Jones, J. W., Rosenzweig, C., Aggarwal, P. K., Alderman, P. D., Anothai, J., Basso, B., Biernath, C., Cammarano, D., Challinor, A., Deryng, D., De Sanctis, G., ... Zhu, Y. (2016). Similar estimates of temperature impacts on global wheat yield by three independent methods. Nature Climate Change, 6(12), 1130-1136. https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3115

CBE

Liu B, Asseng S, Ewert F, Elliott J, Lobell DB, Martre P, Ruane AC, Wallach D, Jones JW, Rosenzweig C, Aggarwal PK, Alderman PD, Anothai J, Basso B, Biernath C, Cammarano D, Challinor A, Deryng D, De Sanctis G, Doltra J, Fereres E, Folberth C, Garcia-Vila M, Gayler S, Hoogenboom G, Hunt LA, Izaurralde RC, Jabloun M, Jones CD, Kersebaum KC, Kimball BA, Koehler AK, Kumar SN, Nendel C, O'Leary GJ, Olesen JE, Ottman MJ, Palosuo T, Prasad PVV, Priesack E, Pugh TAM, Reynolds M, Rezaei EE, Rötter RP, Schmid E, Semenov MA, Shcherbak I, Stehfest E, Stöckle CO, Stratonovitch P, Streck T, Supit I, Tao F, Thorburn P, Waha K, Wall GW, Wang E, White JW, Wolf J, Zhao Z, Zhu Y. 2016. Similar estimates of temperature impacts on global wheat yield by three independent methods. Nature Climate Change. 6(12):1130-1136. https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3115

MLA

Vancouver

Author

Liu, Bing ; Asseng, Senthold ; Ewert, Frank ; Elliott, Joshua ; Lobell, David B. ; Martre, Pierre ; Ruane, Alex C. ; Wallach, Daniel ; Jones, James W. ; Rosenzweig, Cynthia ; Aggarwal, Pramod K. ; Alderman, Phillip D. ; Anothai, Jakarat ; Basso, Bruno ; Biernath, Christian ; Cammarano, Davide ; Challinor, Andy ; Deryng, Delphine ; De Sanctis, Giacomo ; Doltra, Jordi ; Fereres, Elias ; Folberth, Christian ; Garcia-Vila, Margarita ; Gayler, Sebastian ; Hoogenboom, Gerrit ; Hunt, Leslie A. ; Izaurralde, Roberto C. ; Jabloun, Mohamed ; Jones, Curtis D. ; Kersebaum, Kurt C. ; Kimball, Bruce A. ; Koehler, Ann Kristin ; Kumar, Soora Naresh ; Nendel, Claas ; O'Leary, Garry J. ; Olesen, Jørgen E. ; Ottman, Michael J. ; Palosuo, Taru ; Prasad, P. V.Vara ; Priesack, Eckart ; Pugh, Thomas A.M. ; Reynolds, Matthew ; Rezaei, Ehsan E. ; Rötter, Reimund P. ; Schmid, Erwin ; Semenov, Mikhail A. ; Shcherbak, Iurii ; Stehfest, Elke ; Stöckle, Claudio O. ; Stratonovitch, Pierre ; Streck, Thilo ; Supit, Iwan ; Tao, Fulu ; Thorburn, Peter ; Waha, Katharina ; Wall, Gerard W. ; Wang, Enli ; White, Jeffrey W. ; Wolf, Joost ; Zhao, Zhigan ; Zhu, Yan. / Similar estimates of temperature impacts on global wheat yield by three independent methods. In: Nature Climate Change. 2016 ; Vol. 6, No. 12. pp. 1130-1136.

RIS

TY - JOUR

T1 - Similar estimates of temperature impacts on global wheat yield by three independent methods

AU - Liu, Bing

AU - Asseng, Senthold

AU - Ewert, Frank

AU - Elliott, Joshua

AU - Lobell, David B.

AU - Martre, Pierre

AU - Ruane, Alex C.

AU - Wallach, Daniel

AU - Jones, James W.

AU - Rosenzweig, Cynthia

AU - Aggarwal, Pramod K.

AU - Alderman, Phillip D.

AU - Anothai, Jakarat

AU - Basso, Bruno

AU - Biernath, Christian

AU - Cammarano, Davide

AU - Challinor, Andy

AU - Deryng, Delphine

AU - De Sanctis, Giacomo

AU - Doltra, Jordi

AU - Fereres, Elias

AU - Folberth, Christian

AU - Garcia-Vila, Margarita

AU - Gayler, Sebastian

AU - Hoogenboom, Gerrit

AU - Hunt, Leslie A.

AU - Izaurralde, Roberto C.

AU - Jabloun, Mohamed

AU - Jones, Curtis D.

AU - Kersebaum, Kurt C.

AU - Kimball, Bruce A.

AU - Koehler, Ann Kristin

AU - Kumar, Soora Naresh

AU - Nendel, Claas

AU - O'Leary, Garry J.

AU - Olesen, Jørgen E.

AU - Ottman, Michael J.

AU - Palosuo, Taru

AU - Prasad, P. V.Vara

AU - Priesack, Eckart

AU - Pugh, Thomas A.M.

AU - Reynolds, Matthew

AU - Rezaei, Ehsan E.

AU - Rötter, Reimund P.

AU - Schmid, Erwin

AU - Semenov, Mikhail A.

AU - Shcherbak, Iurii

AU - Stehfest, Elke

AU - Stöckle, Claudio O.

AU - Stratonovitch, Pierre

AU - Streck, Thilo

AU - Supit, Iwan

AU - Tao, Fulu

AU - Thorburn, Peter

AU - Waha, Katharina

AU - Wall, Gerard W.

AU - Wang, Enli

AU - White, Jeffrey W.

AU - Wolf, Joost

AU - Zhao, Zhigan

AU - Zhu, Yan

PY - 2016/11/24

Y1 - 2016/11/24

N2 - The potential impact of global temperature change on global crop yield has recently been assessed with different methods. Here we show that grid-based and point-based simulations and statistical regressions (from historic records), without deliberate adaptation or CO 2 fertilization effects, produce similar estimates of temperature impact on wheat yields at global and national scales. With a 1 °C global temperature increase, global wheat yield is projected to decline between 4.1% and 6.4%. Projected relative temperature impacts from different methods were similar for major wheat-producing countries China, India, USA and France, but less so for Russia. Point-based and grid-based simulations, and to some extent the statistical regressions, were consistent in projecting that warmer regions are likely to suffer more yield loss with increasing temperature than cooler regions. By forming a multi-method ensemble, it was possible to quantify 'method uncertainty' in addition to model uncertainty. This significantly improves confidence in estimates of climate impacts on global food security.

AB - The potential impact of global temperature change on global crop yield has recently been assessed with different methods. Here we show that grid-based and point-based simulations and statistical regressions (from historic records), without deliberate adaptation or CO 2 fertilization effects, produce similar estimates of temperature impact on wheat yields at global and national scales. With a 1 °C global temperature increase, global wheat yield is projected to decline between 4.1% and 6.4%. Projected relative temperature impacts from different methods were similar for major wheat-producing countries China, India, USA and France, but less so for Russia. Point-based and grid-based simulations, and to some extent the statistical regressions, were consistent in projecting that warmer regions are likely to suffer more yield loss with increasing temperature than cooler regions. By forming a multi-method ensemble, it was possible to quantify 'method uncertainty' in addition to model uncertainty. This significantly improves confidence in estimates of climate impacts on global food security.

U2 - 10.1038/nclimate3115

DO - 10.1038/nclimate3115

M3 - Article

AN - SCOPUS:84997113412

VL - 6

SP - 1130

EP - 1136

JO - Nature Climate Change

JF - Nature Climate Change

SN - 1758-6798

IS - 12

ER -